As South Korea’s president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung holds constitutional immunity under Article 84 that shields him from most criminal prosecution or arrest except in cases of insurrection or treason through his term ending in 2030. Courts have indefinitely postponed prior trials on election-law violations, graft, and other charges, while the ruling Democratic Party advances legislation for special counsels that could cancel remaining indictments. Opposition impeachment petitions and calls for new probes lack legislative traction, with recent focus instead on diplomatic engagements. Traders therefore price the chance of arrest by December 31, 2026, at just 9.7 percent for “Yes,” reflecting the structural barriers and absence of developments that would override presidential protections.