Recent GitHub platform outages have shaped trader views on the longest critical incident this August. The August 6 Actions disruption, which degraded CI/CD workflows and runner availability for roughly 10 hours and 42 minutes, established the current high-water mark. A subsequent widespread outage on August 17 impacted github.com, APIs, pull requests, authentication, and Copilot for about 7 hours and 47 minutes but did not surpass that duration. With no longer incidents reported through August 21 and limited time remaining in the month, market-implied odds favor the 6-12 hour bucket as the leading outcome while assigning lower probability to a new 12-plus-hour event.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật6-12 hours 53%
12+ hours 18%
<1 hour 11%
3-6 hours 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
<1 hour
11%
1-3 hours
6%
3-6 hours
8%
6-12 hours
53%
12+ hours
18%
6-12 hours 53%
12+ hours 18%
<1 hour 11%
3-6 hours 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
<1 hour
$406 KL.
11%
1-3 hours
$85 KL.
6%
3-6 hours
$65 KL.
8%
6-12 hours
$1,555 KL.
53%
12+ hours
$464 KL.
18%
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent GitHub platform outages have shaped trader views on the longest critical incident this August. The August 6 Actions disruption, which degraded CI/CD workflows and runner availability for roughly 10 hours and 42 minutes, established the current high-water mark. A subsequent widespread outage on August 17 impacted github.com, APIs, pull requests, authentication, and Copilot for about 7 hours and 47 minutes but did not surpass that duration. With no longer incidents reported through August 21 and limited time remaining in the month, market-implied odds favor the 6-12 hour bucket as the leading outcome while assigning lower probability to a new 12-plus-hour event.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 19, 2026, 8:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,575Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 19, 2026, 8:44 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent GitHub platform outages have shaped trader views on the longest critical incident this August. The August 6 Actions disruption, which degraded CI/CD workflows and runner availability for roughly 10 hours and 42 minutes, established the current high-water mark. A subsequent widespread outage on August 17 impacted github.com, APIs, pull requests, authentication, and Copilot for about 7 hours and 47 minutes but did not surpass that duration. With no longer incidents reported through August 21 and limited time remaining in the month, market-implied odds favor the 6-12 hour bucket as the leading outcome while assigning lower probability to a new 12-plus-hour event.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$2,575Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 19, 2026, 8:44 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent GitHub platform outages have shaped trader views on the longest critical incident this August. The August 6 Actions disruption, which degraded CI/CD workflows and runner availability for roughly 10 hours and 42 minutes, established the current high-water mark. A subsequent widespread outage on August 17 impacted github.com, APIs, pull requests, authentication, and Copilot for about 7 hours and 47 minutes but did not surpass that duration. With no longer incidents reported through August 21 and limited time remaining in the month, market-implied odds favor the 6-12 hour bucket as the leading outcome while assigning lower probability to a new 12-plus-hour event.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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