Google's repeated delays to the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement, then slipped into July—have anchored trader expectations around extended timelines, with the 58.5% probability of no release by November 1 reflecting the absence of any confirmed launch window amid ongoing partner testing. Recent releases of lighter variants, including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13 and 3.6 Flash in late July, signal prioritization of efficient models over the frontier Pro version, while the current Gemini 3.1 Pro remains the publicly available leader. This pattern of incremental updates without Pro milestones, combined with competitive pressure from rival labs, sustains the market's spread across September and October intervals without a dominant near-term catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo release by November 1 40%
Prior to August 31 25%
September 7–September 13 24%
August 31–September 6 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
Prior to August 31
25%
August 31–September 6
23%
September 7–September 13
24%
September 14–September 20
23%
September 21–September 27
23%
September 28–October 4
23%
October 5–October 11
23%
October 12–October 18
22%
October 19–October 25
22%
October 26–November 1
23%
No release by November 1
55%
No release by November 1 40%
Prior to August 31 25%
September 7–September 13 24%
August 31–September 6 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
Prior to August 31
$0 KL.
25%
August 31–September 6
$0 KL.
23%
September 7–September 13
$0 KL.
24%
September 14–September 20
$0 KL.
23%
September 21–September 27
$0 KL.
23%
September 28–October 4
$0 KL.
23%
October 5–October 11
$0 KL.
23%
October 12–October 18
$0 KL.
22%
October 19–October 25
$0 KL.
22%
October 26–November 1
$0 KL.
23%
No release by November 1
$47 KL.
55%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays to the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement, then slipped into July—have anchored trader expectations around extended timelines, with the 58.5% probability of no release by November 1 reflecting the absence of any confirmed launch window amid ongoing partner testing. Recent releases of lighter variants, including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13 and 3.6 Flash in late July, signal prioritization of efficient models over the frontier Pro version, while the current Gemini 3.1 Pro remains the publicly available leader. This pattern of incremental updates without Pro milestones, combined with competitive pressure from rival labs, sustains the market's spread across September and October intervals without a dominant near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$47Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays to the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement, then slipped into July—have anchored trader expectations around extended timelines, with the 58.5% probability of no release by November 1 reflecting the absence of any confirmed launch window amid ongoing partner testing. Recent releases of lighter variants, including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13 and 3.6 Flash in late July, signal prioritization of efficient models over the frontier Pro version, while the current Gemini 3.1 Pro remains the publicly available leader. This pattern of incremental updates without Pro milestones, combined with competitive pressure from rival labs, sustains the market's spread across September and October intervals without a dominant near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$47Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's repeated delays to the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement, then slipped into July—have anchored trader expectations around extended timelines, with the 58.5% probability of no release by November 1 reflecting the absence of any confirmed launch window amid ongoing partner testing. Recent releases of lighter variants, including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13 and 3.6 Flash in late July, signal prioritization of efficient models over the frontier Pro version, while the current Gemini 3.1 Pro remains the publicly available leader. This pattern of incremental updates without Pro milestones, combined with competitive pressure from rival labs, sustains the market's spread across September and October intervals without a dominant near-term catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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