Google DeepMind’s frequent Gemini 3.8 series releases, including the Flash and Live variants shipped in early and mid-September 2026, underpin its 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by month-end. These updates emphasize coding, agentic workflows, real-time voice, and specialized capabilities like cybersecurity, delivered at competitive introductory pricing with broad API and enterprise access. This shipping cadence and ecosystem integration have sustained Google’s lead on arena.ai lab rankings ahead of rivals, despite Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping many intelligence benchmarks and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra driving strong demand. The market’s tight clustering around 50% for most other labs reflects limited recent momentum shifts, while Google’s scale and consistent output create a durable edge heading into the September 30 resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGoogle 87%
Meta 6.3%
OpenAI 4.2%
Moonshot 3.1%
$106,217 KL.
$106,217 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
87%
Meta
6%
OpenAI
4%
Moonshot
3%
Alibaba
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Anthropic
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 87%
Meta 6.3%
OpenAI 4.2%
Moonshot 3.1%
$106,217 KL.
$106,217 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
$32,276 KL.
87%
Meta
$13,332 KL.
6%
OpenAI
$8,244 KL.
4%
Moonshot
$3,929 KL.
3%
Alibaba
$14,784 KL.
2%
DeepSeek
$3,881 KL.
1%
Anthropic
$5,421 KL.
1%
SpaceXAI
$3,876 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$3,777 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$2,229 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$2,674 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$1,494 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$534 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$477 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s frequent Gemini 3.8 series releases, including the Flash and Live variants shipped in early and mid-September 2026, underpin its 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by month-end. These updates emphasize coding, agentic workflows, real-time voice, and specialized capabilities like cybersecurity, delivered at competitive introductory pricing with broad API and enterprise access. This shipping cadence and ecosystem integration have sustained Google’s lead on arena.ai lab rankings ahead of rivals, despite Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping many intelligence benchmarks and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra driving strong demand. The market’s tight clustering around 50% for most other labs reflects limited recent momentum shifts, while Google’s scale and consistent output create a durable edge heading into the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$106,217Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s frequent Gemini 3.8 series releases, including the Flash and Live variants shipped in early and mid-September 2026, underpin its 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by month-end. These updates emphasize coding, agentic workflows, real-time voice, and specialized capabilities like cybersecurity, delivered at competitive introductory pricing with broad API and enterprise access. This shipping cadence and ecosystem integration have sustained Google’s lead on arena.ai lab rankings ahead of rivals, despite Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping many intelligence benchmarks and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra driving strong demand. The market’s tight clustering around 50% for most other labs reflects limited recent momentum shifts, while Google’s scale and consistent output create a durable edge heading into the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$106,217Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Google DeepMind’s frequent Gemini 3.8 series releases, including the Flash and Live variants shipped in early and mid-September 2026, underpin its 87% implied probability as the second-best AI lab by month-end. These updates emphasize coding, agentic workflows, real-time voice, and specialized capabilities like cybersecurity, delivered at competitive introductory pricing with broad API and enterprise access. This shipping cadence and ecosystem integration have sustained Google’s lead on arena.ai lab rankings ahead of rivals, despite Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping many intelligence benchmarks and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra driving strong demand. The market’s tight clustering around 50% for most other labs reflects limited recent momentum shifts, while Google’s scale and consistent output create a durable edge heading into the September 30 resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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