Traders see a fragmented race for second-best AI lab by November's end, with "Other" and multiple contenders clustered near 50% implied probability amid intense competition. Google and Meta hold the strongest positions at 42.5% and 25% respectively, driven by sustained model releases, enterprise adoption, and infrastructure scale, while Anthropic's 16.5% reflects its safety-focused large language models and recent capability benchmarks. Newer players like Moonshot and Alibaba add uncertainty through rapid iteration and regional advantages, though OpenAI's lead keeps the field open. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, developer ecosystem growth, and any regulatory or funding shifts that could alter competitive positioning before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGoogle 43%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 17%
Alibaba 15.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
43%
Meta
25%
Anthropic
17%
Alibaba
10%
Moonshot
9%
OpenAI
8%
SpaceXAI
4%
Baidu
3%
Z.ai
3%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Tencent
1%
Google 43%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 17%
Alibaba 15.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
$2,283 KL.
43%
Meta
$916 KL.
25%
Anthropic
$636 KL.
17%
Alibaba
$200 KL.
10%
Moonshot
$286 KL.
9%
OpenAI
$192 KL.
8%
SpaceXAI
$187 KL.
4%
Baidu
$187 KL.
3%
Z.ai
$187 KL.
3%
Xiaomi
$187 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$176 KL.
1%
Amazon
$186 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$197 KL.
1%
Thinky
$187 KL.
1%
Meituan
$187 KL.
1%
StepFun
$176 KL.
1%
Nvidia
$187 KL.
1%
MiniMax
$187 KL.
1%
Mistral
$176 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$176 KL.
1%
Tencent
$196 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a fragmented race for second-best AI lab by November's end, with "Other" and multiple contenders clustered near 50% implied probability amid intense competition. Google and Meta hold the strongest positions at 42.5% and 25% respectively, driven by sustained model releases, enterprise adoption, and infrastructure scale, while Anthropic's 16.5% reflects its safety-focused large language models and recent capability benchmarks. Newer players like Moonshot and Alibaba add uncertainty through rapid iteration and regional advantages, though OpenAI's lead keeps the field open. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, developer ecosystem growth, and any regulatory or funding shifts that could alter competitive positioning before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,295Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a fragmented race for second-best AI lab by November's end, with "Other" and multiple contenders clustered near 50% implied probability amid intense competition. Google and Meta hold the strongest positions at 42.5% and 25% respectively, driven by sustained model releases, enterprise adoption, and infrastructure scale, while Anthropic's 16.5% reflects its safety-focused large language models and recent capability benchmarks. Newer players like Moonshot and Alibaba add uncertainty through rapid iteration and regional advantages, though OpenAI's lead keeps the field open. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, developer ecosystem growth, and any regulatory or funding shifts that could alter competitive positioning before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$7,295Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a fragmented race for second-best AI lab by November's end, with "Other" and multiple contenders clustered near 50% implied probability amid intense competition. Google and Meta hold the strongest positions at 42.5% and 25% respectively, driven by sustained model releases, enterprise adoption, and infrastructure scale, while Anthropic's 16.5% reflects its safety-focused large language models and recent capability benchmarks. Newer players like Moonshot and Alibaba add uncertainty through rapid iteration and regional advantages, though OpenAI's lead keeps the field open. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, developer ecosystem growth, and any regulatory or funding shifts that could alter competitive positioning before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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