Recent public statements and internal metrics from both labs have driven trader focus on recursive self-improvement, or RSI, where AI systems autonomously design and refine successors with minimal human input. Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” report detailed Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May, alongside 8x engineer output gains and agent-led research loops closing benchmark gaps far faster than humans. OpenAI followed with its July GPT-5.6 launch and RSI Index tracking automated research tasks, then September warnings from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki and CEO Sam Altman echoing Dario Amodei’s call for voluntary slowdowns. These disclosures frame measurable progress toward RSI without confirming full achievement, heightening uncertainty around any near-term announcement while highlighting competitive pressure and safety scrutiny as key swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
6%
December 31, 2026
8%
$1,313 KL.
October 31, 2026
$684 KL.
6%
December 31, 2026
$629 KL.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent public statements and internal metrics from both labs have driven trader focus on recursive self-improvement, or RSI, where AI systems autonomously design and refine successors with minimal human input. Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” report detailed Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May, alongside 8x engineer output gains and agent-led research loops closing benchmark gaps far faster than humans. OpenAI followed with its July GPT-5.6 launch and RSI Index tracking automated research tasks, then September warnings from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki and CEO Sam Altman echoing Dario Amodei’s call for voluntary slowdowns. These disclosures frame measurable progress toward RSI without confirming full achievement, heightening uncertainty around any near-term announcement while highlighting competitive pressure and safety scrutiny as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,313Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent public statements and internal metrics from both labs have driven trader focus on recursive self-improvement, or RSI, where AI systems autonomously design and refine successors with minimal human input. Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” report detailed Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May, alongside 8x engineer output gains and agent-led research loops closing benchmark gaps far faster than humans. OpenAI followed with its July GPT-5.6 launch and RSI Index tracking automated research tasks, then September warnings from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki and CEO Sam Altman echoing Dario Amodei’s call for voluntary slowdowns. These disclosures frame measurable progress toward RSI without confirming full achievement, heightening uncertainty around any near-term announcement while highlighting competitive pressure and safety scrutiny as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,313Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent public statements and internal metrics from both labs have driven trader focus on recursive self-improvement, or RSI, where AI systems autonomously design and refine successors with minimal human input. Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” report detailed Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code by May, alongside 8x engineer output gains and agent-led research loops closing benchmark gaps far faster than humans. OpenAI followed with its July GPT-5.6 launch and RSI Index tracking automated research tasks, then September warnings from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki and CEO Sam Altman echoing Dario Amodei’s call for voluntary slowdowns. These disclosures frame measurable progress toward RSI without confirming full achievement, heightening uncertainty around any near-term announcement while highlighting competitive pressure and safety scrutiny as key swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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