Meta's recent release of Muse Spark 1.3 in early September, with strong showings on Artificial Analysis benchmarks and agentic coding tasks, has driven the 77% market-implied probability that it ranks as the third-best AI lab by end of September. Trader consensus reflects Meta's competitive positioning behind Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on key leaderboards, supported by aggressive talent acquisition and compute scaling. Lower odds for Google (4.5%) and others stem from comparatively weaker recent performance in the arena.ai Text Arena metric used for resolution, though new model drops or benchmark shifts in the final weeks could still alter outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMeta 76.9%
Google 5%
Moonshot 2.9%
Alibaba 2.6%
$90,063 KL.
$90,063 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
77%
5%
Moonshot
3%
Alibaba
3%
Z.ai
2%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
OpenAI
1%
Anthropic
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 76.9%
Google 5%
Moonshot 2.9%
Alibaba 2.6%
$90,063 KL.
$90,063 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$12,077 KL.
77%
$39,738 KL.
5%
Moonshot
$3,055 KL.
3%
Alibaba
$9,327 KL.
3%
Z.ai
$2,238 KL.
2%
Baidu
$1,903 KL.
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,183 KL.
1%
OpenAI
$5,600 KL.
1%
Anthropic
$1,931 KL.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,165 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,085 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$994 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$441 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$669 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$970 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$421 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent release of Muse Spark 1.3 in early September, with strong showings on Artificial Analysis benchmarks and agentic coding tasks, has driven the 77% market-implied probability that it ranks as the third-best AI lab by end of September. Trader consensus reflects Meta's competitive positioning behind Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on key leaderboards, supported by aggressive talent acquisition and compute scaling. Lower odds for Google (4.5%) and others stem from comparatively weaker recent performance in the arena.ai Text Arena metric used for resolution, though new model drops or benchmark shifts in the final weeks could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$90,063Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent release of Muse Spark 1.3 in early September, with strong showings on Artificial Analysis benchmarks and agentic coding tasks, has driven the 77% market-implied probability that it ranks as the third-best AI lab by end of September. Trader consensus reflects Meta's competitive positioning behind Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on key leaderboards, supported by aggressive talent acquisition and compute scaling. Lower odds for Google (4.5%) and others stem from comparatively weaker recent performance in the arena.ai Text Arena metric used for resolution, though new model drops or benchmark shifts in the final weeks could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$90,063Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Meta's recent release of Muse Spark 1.3 in early September, with strong showings on Artificial Analysis benchmarks and agentic coding tasks, has driven the 77% market-implied probability that it ranks as the third-best AI lab by end of September. Trader consensus reflects Meta's competitive positioning behind Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on key leaderboards, supported by aggressive talent acquisition and compute scaling. Lower odds for Google (4.5%) and others stem from comparatively weaker recent performance in the arena.ai Text Arena metric used for resolution, though new model drops or benchmark shifts in the final weeks could still alter outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp