Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release, which tied leading models on key benchmarks like the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and introduced competitive agent capabilities via the Muse platform, has driven trader consensus toward an 89.3% implied probability that Meta ranks as the third-best AI lab by end-September. This follows Meta's open-weights strategy with models like Muse Glimmer and Llama variants, alongside expanded compute and data partnerships that bolster its positioning behind frontrunners OpenAI and Anthropic. Google’s lower 7.5% odds reflect slower recent momentum on arena.ai-style leaderboards despite Gemini integration, while smaller labs remain marginal. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Text Arena Labs filter on September 30, where any late benchmark shifts or new releases could still alter the ranking.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMeta 89.3%
Google 8%
Alibaba 2.3%
Moonshot 1.9%
$92,428 KL.
$92,428 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
89%
8%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 89.3%
Google 8%
Alibaba 2.3%
Moonshot 1.9%
$92,428 KL.
$92,428 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$12,522 KL.
89%
$40,533 KL.
8%
Alibaba
$9,480 KL.
2%
Moonshot
$3,138 KL.
2%
Z.ai
$2,391 KL.
<1%
Anthropic
$2,005 KL.
<1%
OpenAI
$5,837 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$1,977 KL.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,257 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,159 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$997 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,365 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$441 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$669 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$970 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$421 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release, which tied leading models on key benchmarks like the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and introduced competitive agent capabilities via the Muse platform, has driven trader consensus toward an 89.3% implied probability that Meta ranks as the third-best AI lab by end-September. This follows Meta's open-weights strategy with models like Muse Glimmer and Llama variants, alongside expanded compute and data partnerships that bolster its positioning behind frontrunners OpenAI and Anthropic. Google’s lower 7.5% odds reflect slower recent momentum on arena.ai-style leaderboards despite Gemini integration, while smaller labs remain marginal. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Text Arena Labs filter on September 30, where any late benchmark shifts or new releases could still alter the ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$92,428Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release, which tied leading models on key benchmarks like the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and introduced competitive agent capabilities via the Muse platform, has driven trader consensus toward an 89.3% implied probability that Meta ranks as the third-best AI lab by end-September. This follows Meta's open-weights strategy with models like Muse Glimmer and Llama variants, alongside expanded compute and data partnerships that bolster its positioning behind frontrunners OpenAI and Anthropic. Google’s lower 7.5% odds reflect slower recent momentum on arena.ai-style leaderboards despite Gemini integration, while smaller labs remain marginal. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Text Arena Labs filter on September 30, where any late benchmark shifts or new releases could still alter the ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$92,428Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release, which tied leading models on key benchmarks like the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and introduced competitive agent capabilities via the Muse platform, has driven trader consensus toward an 89.3% implied probability that Meta ranks as the third-best AI lab by end-September. This follows Meta's open-weights strategy with models like Muse Glimmer and Llama variants, alongside expanded compute and data partnerships that bolster its positioning behind frontrunners OpenAI and Anthropic. Google’s lower 7.5% odds reflect slower recent momentum on arena.ai-style leaderboards despite Gemini integration, while smaller labs remain marginal. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Text Arena Labs filter on September 30, where any late benchmark shifts or new releases could still alter the ranking.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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