Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, featuring native multimodal support, a 1M-token context window, and Agent Swarm orchestration for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, has driven its 80.7% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by September 30. The open-weight model has posted competitive results on agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and coding arenas, narrowing the gap with closed U.S. systems while attracting developer adoption through lower-cost inference and tools like Kimi Code. Traders view this combination of demonstrated long-horizon agentic performance and rapid iteration as the decisive factor over labs like Meta, DeepSeek, or Anthropic, whose recent releases have not shifted relative standings as sharply. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard in two weeks, fresh benchmark updates or model refreshes could still alter the final ranking.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMoonshot 80.7%
Z.ai 5.3%
DeepSeek 5.1%
SpaceXAI 4.1%
$48,207 KL.
$48,207 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
81%
Z.ai
5%
DeepSeek
5%
SpaceXAI
4%
Alibaba
4%
3%
Mistral
3%
Anthropic
3%
Meta
6%
OpenAI
2%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 80.7%
Z.ai 5.3%
DeepSeek 5.1%
SpaceXAI 4.1%
$48,207 KL.
$48,207 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$29,179 KL.
81%
Z.ai
$2,787 KL.
5%
DeepSeek
$461 KL.
5%
SpaceXAI
$563 KL.
4%
Alibaba
$1,077 KL.
4%
$472 KL.
3%
Mistral
$590 KL.
3%
Anthropic
$2,449 KL.
3%
Meta
$387 KL.
6%
OpenAI
$7,061 KL.
2%
Nvidia
$460 KL.
1%
Amazon
$387 KL.
1%
Xiaomi
$353 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$549 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$363 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$383 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$368 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$318 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, featuring native multimodal support, a 1M-token context window, and Agent Swarm orchestration for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, has driven its 80.7% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by September 30. The open-weight model has posted competitive results on agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and coding arenas, narrowing the gap with closed U.S. systems while attracting developer adoption through lower-cost inference and tools like Kimi Code. Traders view this combination of demonstrated long-horizon agentic performance and rapid iteration as the decisive factor over labs like Meta, DeepSeek, or Anthropic, whose recent releases have not shifted relative standings as sharply. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard in two weeks, fresh benchmark updates or model refreshes could still alter the final ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Khối lượng
$48,207Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, featuring native multimodal support, a 1M-token context window, and Agent Swarm orchestration for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, has driven its 80.7% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by September 30. The open-weight model has posted competitive results on agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and coding arenas, narrowing the gap with closed U.S. systems while attracting developer adoption through lower-cost inference and tools like Kimi Code. Traders view this combination of demonstrated long-horizon agentic performance and rapid iteration as the decisive factor over labs like Meta, DeepSeek, or Anthropic, whose recent releases have not shifted relative standings as sharply. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard in two weeks, fresh benchmark updates or model refreshes could still alter the final ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$48,207Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, featuring native multimodal support, a 1M-token context window, and Agent Swarm orchestration for up to 300 parallel sub-agents, has driven its 80.7% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by September 30. The open-weight model has posted competitive results on agent benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp, and coding arenas, narrowing the gap with closed U.S. systems while attracting developer adoption through lower-cost inference and tools like Kimi Code. Traders view this combination of demonstrated long-horizon agentic performance and rapid iteration as the decisive factor over labs like Meta, DeepSeek, or Anthropic, whose recent releases have not shifted relative standings as sharply. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard in two weeks, fresh benchmark updates or model refreshes could still alter the final ranking.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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