OpenAI's 94% implied probability of ranking as the second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its consistent releases of capable large language models with advanced agentic features, including tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration across developer platforms. Traders see these demonstrated capabilities and ecosystem momentum as decisive against slower or narrower progress elsewhere. A late-month breakthrough from Anthropic or a major open-source advance could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require verifiable capability jumps before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOpenAI 94.2%
Anthropic 3.8%
Moonshot 1.2%
Z.ai <1%
$61,252 KL.
$61,252 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
94%
Anthropic
4%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 94.2%
Anthropic 3.8%
Moonshot 1.2%
Z.ai <1%
$61,252 KL.
$61,252 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$31,317 KL.
94%
Anthropic
$6,767 KL.
4%
Moonshot
$7,593 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$2,168 KL.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,771 KL.
<1%
Meta
$745 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$824 KL.
<1%
$1,086 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$3,279 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$434 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$944 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$550 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$703 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$374 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$995 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$362 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$531 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's 94% implied probability of ranking as the second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its consistent releases of capable large language models with advanced agentic features, including tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration across developer platforms. Traders see these demonstrated capabilities and ecosystem momentum as decisive against slower or narrower progress elsewhere. A late-month breakthrough from Anthropic or a major open-source advance could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require verifiable capability jumps before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Khối lượng
$61,252Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's 94% implied probability of ranking as the second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its consistent releases of capable large language models with advanced agentic features, including tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration across developer platforms. Traders see these demonstrated capabilities and ecosystem momentum as decisive against slower or narrower progress elsewhere. A late-month breakthrough from Anthropic or a major open-source advance could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require verifiable capability jumps before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$61,252Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's 94% implied probability of ranking as the second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its consistent releases of capable large language models with advanced agentic features, including tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration across developer platforms. Traders see these demonstrated capabilities and ecosystem momentum as decisive against slower or narrower progress elsewhere. A late-month breakthrough from Anthropic or a major open-source advance could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require verifiable capability jumps before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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