**Strong trader consensus around a 91% probability for "No" on AI winning IMO gold in 2026 stems primarily from the distinction between benchmark performance and official competition rules.** While multiple frontier models—including Huawei’s Celia and Xiaohongshu’s dots-note-3.0—achieved perfect 42/42 scores on the official 2026 problems under IMO-style grading in Shanghai, and others like Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5 variants matched or exceeded gold thresholds in independent evaluations, these remain post-hoc tests rather than live entries. The IMO restricts participation to human contestants under 20, with no formal AI category or medal awarded. Open-weight models such as DeepSeek variants have also cleared the gold cutoff (around 29–30 points), underscoring rapid progress in large language model reasoning on proof-based problems. Realistic paths to shifting odds include official IMO recognition of AI submissions or rule changes before year-end, though current structures make this unlikely without new announcements.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$10,087 KL.
$10,087 KL.
$10,087 KL.
$10,087 KL.
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Strong trader consensus around a 91% probability for "No" on AI winning IMO gold in 2026 stems primarily from the distinction between benchmark performance and official competition rules.** While multiple frontier models—including Huawei’s Celia and Xiaohongshu’s dots-note-3.0—achieved perfect 42/42 scores on the official 2026 problems under IMO-style grading in Shanghai, and others like Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5 variants matched or exceeded gold thresholds in independent evaluations, these remain post-hoc tests rather than live entries. The IMO restricts participation to human contestants under 20, with no formal AI category or medal awarded. Open-weight models such as DeepSeek variants have also cleared the gold cutoff (around 29–30 points), underscoring rapid progress in large language model reasoning on proof-based problems. Realistic paths to shifting odds include official IMO recognition of AI submissions or rule changes before year-end, though current structures make this unlikely without new announcements.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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