**Forecast consensus points to a mild overnight low for Istanbul on September 6 amid clear, stable conditions, with model spread driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around 17–21°C.** Official and private forecasts indicate sunny skies and highs of 29–32°C during the day, followed by light northeast winds and clear conditions overnight that support radiative cooling. Expected minimums range from 17–22°C across sources, reflecting typical early-September variability and the influence of Istanbul’s urban heat island and proximity to the Bosphorus, which moderates extremes. Historical September averages near 17°C provide context, but current patterns favor warmer readings. The closely matched probabilities (roughly 25–27% each for the 17–21°C outcomes) capture genuine uncertainty in ensemble model runs regarding exact pre-dawn cooling rates, minor humidity differences, and local wind variations. No major weather systems or rapid changes are indicated in the latest guidance, keeping the distribution narrow and centered on the most likely 18–20°C band while assigning lower but non-negligible weight to the tails. Updated model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
22°C 50%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
44%
14°C
50%
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C
27%
18°C
27%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
50%
23°C or higher
44%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
22°C 50%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
$0 KL.
44%
14°C
$0 KL.
50%
15°C
$0 KL.
50%
16°C
$0 KL.
50%
17°C
$0 KL.
27%
18°C
$0 KL.
27%
19°C
$0 KL.
27%
20°C
$0 KL.
27%
21°C
$10 KL.
27%
22°C
$0 KL.
50%
23°C or higher
$0 KL.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a mild overnight low for Istanbul on September 6 amid clear, stable conditions, with model spread driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around 17–21°C.**
Official and private forecasts indicate sunny skies and highs of 29–32°C during the day, followed by light northeast winds and clear conditions overnight that support radiative cooling. Expected minimums range from 17–22°C across sources, reflecting typical early-September variability and the influence of Istanbul’s urban heat island and proximity to the Bosphorus, which moderates extremes. Historical September averages near 17°C provide context, but current patterns favor warmer readings.
The closely matched probabilities (roughly 25–27% each for the 17–21°C outcomes) capture genuine uncertainty in ensemble model runs regarding exact pre-dawn cooling rates, minor humidity differences, and local wind variations. No major weather systems or rapid changes are indicated in the latest guidance, keeping the distribution narrow and centered on the most likely 18–20°C band while assigning lower but non-negligible weight to the tails. Updated model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Khối lượng
$10Ngày kết thúc
Sep 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a mild overnight low for Istanbul on September 6 amid clear, stable conditions, with model spread driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around 17–21°C.**
Official and private forecasts indicate sunny skies and highs of 29–32°C during the day, followed by light northeast winds and clear conditions overnight that support radiative cooling. Expected minimums range from 17–22°C across sources, reflecting typical early-September variability and the influence of Istanbul’s urban heat island and proximity to the Bosphorus, which moderates extremes. Historical September averages near 17°C provide context, but current patterns favor warmer readings.
The closely matched probabilities (roughly 25–27% each for the 17–21°C outcomes) capture genuine uncertainty in ensemble model runs regarding exact pre-dawn cooling rates, minor humidity differences, and local wind variations. No major weather systems or rapid changes are indicated in the latest guidance, keeping the distribution narrow and centered on the most likely 18–20°C band while assigning lower but non-negligible weight to the tails. Updated model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$10Ngày kết thúc
Sep 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a mild overnight low for Istanbul on September 6 amid clear, stable conditions, with model spread driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around 17–21°C.** Official and private forecasts indicate sunny skies and highs of 29–32°C during the day, followed by light northeast winds and clear conditions overnight that support radiative cooling. Expected minimums range from 17–22°C across sources, reflecting typical early-September variability and the influence of Istanbul’s urban heat island and proximity to the Bosphorus, which moderates extremes. Historical September averages near 17°C provide context, but current patterns favor warmer readings. The closely matched probabilities (roughly 25–27% each for the 17–21°C outcomes) capture genuine uncertainty in ensemble model runs regarding exact pre-dawn cooling rates, minor humidity differences, and local wind variations. No major weather systems or rapid changes are indicated in the latest guidance, keeping the distribution narrow and centered on the most likely 18–20°C band while assigning lower but non-negligible weight to the tails. Updated model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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