**Forecast models and official guidance converge on a minimum near 22°C overnight into September 21, 2026.** Chinese meteorological services and international guidance (including GFS-based outputs) project an overnight low of 22–23°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light northerly to northeasterly winds of 5–15 km/h. Observed temperatures on the evening of September 20 already fell into the mid-20s°C, and dew points near 19–21°C plus moderate humidity (70–85%) support limited further cooling. Historical September climatology for Shanghai shows typical overnight minima in the low-20s°C, aligning with the current pattern of stable, moist subtropical air without strong cold advection. The 99% market-implied probability for 22°C reflects this tight model consensus and proximity to resolution, with only modest uncertainty in exact radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies and lighter winds than forecast to push readings to 21°C, or unexpectedly persistent cloud and mixing to hold the minimum at 23°C or above; current data and short-range updates make either outcome low-probability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 21?
22°C 99%
21°C 2%
20°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
99%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 99%
21°C 2%
20°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
$37 KL.
<1%
18°C
$31 KL.
<1%
19°C
$36 KL.
<1%
20°C
$265 KL.
<1%
21°C
$382 KL.
2%
22°C
$2,001 KL.
99%
23°C
$3,256 KL.
<1%
24°C
$459 KL.
<1%
25°C
$36 KL.
<1%
26°C
$36 KL.
<1%
27°C or higher
$838 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance converge on a minimum near 22°C overnight into September 21, 2026.**
Chinese meteorological services and international guidance (including GFS-based outputs) project an overnight low of 22–23°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light northerly to northeasterly winds of 5–15 km/h. Observed temperatures on the evening of September 20 already fell into the mid-20s°C, and dew points near 19–21°C plus moderate humidity (70–85%) support limited further cooling. Historical September climatology for Shanghai shows typical overnight minima in the low-20s°C, aligning with the current pattern of stable, moist subtropical air without strong cold advection.
The 99% market-implied probability for 22°C reflects this tight model consensus and proximity to resolution, with only modest uncertainty in exact radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies and lighter winds than forecast to push readings to 21°C, or unexpectedly persistent cloud and mixing to hold the minimum at 23°C or above; current data and short-range updates make either outcome low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$7,376Ngày kết thúc
Sep 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance converge on a minimum near 22°C overnight into September 21, 2026.**
Chinese meteorological services and international guidance (including GFS-based outputs) project an overnight low of 22–23°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light northerly to northeasterly winds of 5–15 km/h. Observed temperatures on the evening of September 20 already fell into the mid-20s°C, and dew points near 19–21°C plus moderate humidity (70–85%) support limited further cooling. Historical September climatology for Shanghai shows typical overnight minima in the low-20s°C, aligning with the current pattern of stable, moist subtropical air without strong cold advection.
The 99% market-implied probability for 22°C reflects this tight model consensus and proximity to resolution, with only modest uncertainty in exact radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies and lighter winds than forecast to push readings to 21°C, or unexpectedly persistent cloud and mixing to hold the minimum at 23°C or above; current data and short-range updates make either outcome low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$7,376Ngày kết thúc
Sep 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance converge on a minimum near 22°C overnight into September 21, 2026.** Chinese meteorological services and international guidance (including GFS-based outputs) project an overnight low of 22–23°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light northerly to northeasterly winds of 5–15 km/h. Observed temperatures on the evening of September 20 already fell into the mid-20s°C, and dew points near 19–21°C plus moderate humidity (70–85%) support limited further cooling. Historical September climatology for Shanghai shows typical overnight minima in the low-20s°C, aligning with the current pattern of stable, moist subtropical air without strong cold advection. The 99% market-implied probability for 22°C reflects this tight model consensus and proximity to resolution, with only modest uncertainty in exact radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require clearer skies and lighter winds than forecast to push readings to 21°C, or unexpectedly persistent cloud and mixing to hold the minimum at 23°C or above; current data and short-range updates make either outcome low-probability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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