**Clear skies and high pressure over central Europe are supporting strong radiative cooling overnight in Warsaw, with forecast models showing minimum temperatures on October 2 clustered around 6–9°C under light southeasterly flow.** Official guidance from sources such as ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicates dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, favoring efficient heat loss after sunset, yet small variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any thin high clouds can shift the low by several degrees. This uncertainty keeps market-implied probabilities nearly even between sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes, as traders weigh the potential for deeper cooling against historical early-October baselines near 8–10°C. Updated model runs and observational data through the evening of October 1 will be the next key inputs for refining the overnight minimum.