Matt Little's decisive victory in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District on November 3, 2026, with all precincts reporting and a final margin of approximately 14.3 points, has produced the near-certain trader consensus around a Democratic win of 10-15 points. The open seat, vacated by former Representative Angie Craig, saw Little defeat Republican Eric Pratt by more than 53,000 votes in a district that leans modestly Democratic based on recent presidential results. Full vote certification and the absence of any viable path for a recount or reversal at this margin have reinforced the implied probability. Only an unprecedented post-election development, such as a successful legal challenge overturning thousands of ballots, could realistically alter the outcome before final resolution.