**Nawaf Salam has remained Lebanon’s prime minister since February 2025 under President Joseph Aoun, leading a reform-focused cabinet that secured parliamentary confidence and has stayed intact through post-war reconstruction and border negotiations.** As of mid-August 2026, he continues directing diplomatic efforts, including recent meetings with U.S. officials to press for a clear Israeli withdrawal timetable from southern Lebanon and measures to assert state authority over armed groups. No parliamentary moves, coalition breakdowns, or official statements signal an imminent resignation, dismissal, or cabinet collapse before year-end. Traders price the “No” outcome at 89.5% because the current political configuration shows continuity on key files—economic reforms, UN resolution implementation, and international engagement—without the acute triggers that historically shortened Lebanese premierships. Parliamentary elections in May 2026 produced no immediate government change, further supporting expectations of stability through December.