This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
May 9 2026
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries
6 surges to 21%15%
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries could climb toward six
Apr 25 2026
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the
8 dips to 1%2%
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the likelihood of reaching eight different countries, pushing the
Apr 15 2026
Israel and Hezbollah exchange strikes; Israeli airstrikes destroy key infrastructure in southern Lebanon
7 dips to 2%2%
Continued fighting in Lebanon without new countries involved pushed the probability back down.
Apr 8 2026
Israel launches its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, hitting over 100 Hezbollah targets including in Beirut, disrupting the Iran war ceasefire
10 rises to 2%1%
The escalation in Lebanon added to the count of countries struck but still far from 10, causing minor.
Mar 28 2026
Houthis in Yemen resume ballistic missile attacks against Israel, marking a new front in the conflict and expanding Israel's strike geography
10 rises to 2%1%
The Houthi attacks and Israel's responses in Yemen added another country to the list but did not approach 10 countries.
Mar 27 2026
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 37%12%
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” includes Qatar)
Mar 23 2026
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second
6 jumps to 23%12%
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second confirmed foreign country hit
Mar 21 2026
A failed Israeli missile over the Red Sea is intercepted by Saudi air‑defences;
4 drops to 36%8%
because the missile never impacted ground territory, analysts downgrade the “new country” count, causing a sharp drop
Mar 20 2026
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing
9 dips to 1%3%
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing Syria as a new country struck and further lowering the market’s “Yes” probability.
Mar 16 2026
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 25%5%
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” notes Yemen attacks)
Mar 8 2026
Israel carries out broad-scale airstrikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran, intensifying the campaign against Iran's military capabilities
10 dips to 1%1%
This reinforced the focus on Iran rather than expanding to many countries, further reducing the chance of strikes in 10 countries.
Mar 1 2026
Israeli Navy kills Hezbollah Southern Front commander in Beirut, intensifying Lebanon conflict but no new countries targeted
7 jumps to 7%5%
This high-profile strike in Lebanon increased conflict intensity but did not expand the number of countries struck.
Feb 28 2026
Israel and United States launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites
10 rises to 2%2%
The start of focused strikes on Iran and limited other countries indicated a concentrated conflict, lowering the probability of Israel striking 10 different countries.
Feb 28 2026
United States and Israel begin coordinated airstrikes on Iran, hitting multiple missile‑production facilities;
6 surges to 25%23%
the operation is reported as the first direct Israeli strike on Iranian soil in the war
Feb 23 2026
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the
8 rises to 3%2%
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the tally might approach eight, causing a short‑term
Feb 22 2026
Hezbollah resumes rocket strikes on Israel; Israel responds with airstrikes across Lebanon including Beirut
7 rises to 6%1%
Renewed conflict in Lebanon and Iran-related escalation maintained some upward pressure on the probability.
Feb 9 2026
Israel and US launch war against Iran and assassinate Iranian supreme leader, triggering regional conflict including strikes in Lebanon and Iran
7 jumps to 8%6%
The outbreak of war with Iran and expanded strikes raised the chance of Israel striking multiple countries, causing a
Jan 21 2026
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on the Syria‑Lebanon frontier, the first foreign‑country strike of the year, adding Lebanon to the tally and sharply reducing the odds of reaching nine different target countries.
Jan 15 2026
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third
8 dips to 1%1%
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third foreign country to the count; the market reacted with a brief rise that soon faded as no further new‑country attacks were reported.
Jan 10 2026
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked
5 jumps to 15%9%
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”)
Jan 5 2026
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army
3 drops to 38%7%
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army deployments
Dec 24 2025
Israel carries out multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure amid disarmament deadline
7 dips to 2%1%
Continued strikes in Lebanon reinforced the focus on existing conflict zones rather than new countries, keeping the probability low.
Dec 9 2025
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise
4 rises to 13%3%
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise further
Nov 28 2025
Israeli forces raid Beit Jinn in southern Syria, killing at least 13 people including two children, after locals resisted the incursion;
3 plunges to 20%27%
the Israeli military targeted suspected Islamist militants and used air support during withdrawal
Nov 23 2025
Israel kills senior Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike, escalating tensions in Lebanon but not expanding to new countries
7 plunges to 4%40%
This strike in Beirut marked a significant escalation in Lebanon but did not indicate new countries being targeted, contributing to the sharp drop in probability.
Nov 22 2025
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike,
8 dips to 2%1%
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike, nudging the odds upward before the market steadied at low levels.
Nov 19 2025
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets
8 dips to 3%2%
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets inside Syrian territory, confirming another cross‑border strike and causing a modest uptick that quickly receded.
Nov 9 2025
Israel bombs Hamas headquarters in Qatar targeting Hamas leadership, marking cross-border strikes beyond immediate neighbors
10 plunges to 5%42%
This event showed Israel striking outside its immediate borders but limited to a few countries, reducing the likelihood of 10 countries being struck in 2026.
May 31 2025
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria)
8 dips to 5%3%
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria) added another foreign country to the tally, briefly boosting the market before the
Feb 10 2025
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the
8 plunges to 8%42%
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the Syria‑Lebanon border, marking the first reported Israeli strike on Lebanese soil in 2026‑type forecasting and prompting a sharp rise in the “8‑countries” probability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices 5 countries as most likely (35%) in a tight race with 4 (28%), reflecting Israel's sustained airstrikes on Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the early-2026 war that began with joint US-Israeli operations against Tehran on February 28, but no verified strikes on additional sovereign states since April ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. Recent developments, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as late as May 8 despite the US-backed truce, have heightened fears of Hezbollah ceasefire collapse without expanding the target list, keeping the count stable around 3-4 while half the year remains. Escalation via Houthi attacks from Yemen or new proxy actions could push toward 6+, while de-escalation signals might solidify 4.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
May 9 2026
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries
6 surges to 21%15%
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries could climb toward six
Apr 25 2026
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the
8 dips to 1%2%
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the likelihood of reaching eight different countries, pushing the
Apr 15 2026
Israel and Hezbollah exchange strikes; Israeli airstrikes destroy key infrastructure in southern Lebanon
7 dips to 2%2%
Continued fighting in Lebanon without new countries involved pushed the probability back down.
Apr 8 2026
Israel launches its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, hitting over 100 Hezbollah targets including in Beirut, disrupting the Iran war ceasefire
10 rises to 2%1%
The escalation in Lebanon added to the count of countries struck but still far from 10, causing minor.
Mar 28 2026
Houthis in Yemen resume ballistic missile attacks against Israel, marking a new front in the conflict and expanding Israel's strike geography
10 rises to 2%1%
The Houthi attacks and Israel's responses in Yemen added another country to the list but did not approach 10 countries.
Mar 27 2026
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 37%12%
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” includes Qatar)
Mar 23 2026
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second
6 jumps to 23%12%
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second confirmed foreign country hit
Mar 21 2026
A failed Israeli missile over the Red Sea is intercepted by Saudi air‑defences;
4 drops to 36%8%
because the missile never impacted ground territory, analysts downgrade the “new country” count, causing a sharp drop
Mar 20 2026
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing
9 dips to 1%3%
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing Syria as a new country struck and further lowering the market’s “Yes” probability.
Mar 16 2026
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 25%5%
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” notes Yemen attacks)
Mar 8 2026
Israel carries out broad-scale airstrikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran, intensifying the campaign against Iran's military capabilities
10 dips to 1%1%
This reinforced the focus on Iran rather than expanding to many countries, further reducing the chance of strikes in 10 countries.
Mar 1 2026
Israeli Navy kills Hezbollah Southern Front commander in Beirut, intensifying Lebanon conflict but no new countries targeted
7 jumps to 7%5%
This high-profile strike in Lebanon increased conflict intensity but did not expand the number of countries struck.
Feb 28 2026
Israel and United States launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites
10 rises to 2%2%
The start of focused strikes on Iran and limited other countries indicated a concentrated conflict, lowering the probability of Israel striking 10 different countries.
Feb 28 2026
United States and Israel begin coordinated airstrikes on Iran, hitting multiple missile‑production facilities;
6 surges to 25%23%
the operation is reported as the first direct Israeli strike on Iranian soil in the war
Feb 23 2026
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the
8 rises to 3%2%
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the tally might approach eight, causing a short‑term
Feb 22 2026
Hezbollah resumes rocket strikes on Israel; Israel responds with airstrikes across Lebanon including Beirut
7 rises to 6%1%
Renewed conflict in Lebanon and Iran-related escalation maintained some upward pressure on the probability.
Feb 9 2026
Israel and US launch war against Iran and assassinate Iranian supreme leader, triggering regional conflict including strikes in Lebanon and Iran
7 jumps to 8%6%
The outbreak of war with Iran and expanded strikes raised the chance of Israel striking multiple countries, causing a
Jan 21 2026
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on the Syria‑Lebanon frontier, the first foreign‑country strike of the year, adding Lebanon to the tally and sharply reducing the odds of reaching nine different target countries.
Jan 15 2026
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third
8 dips to 1%1%
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third foreign country to the count; the market reacted with a brief rise that soon faded as no further new‑country attacks were reported.
Jan 10 2026
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked
5 jumps to 15%9%
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”)
Jan 5 2026
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army
3 drops to 38%7%
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army deployments
Dec 24 2025
Israel carries out multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure amid disarmament deadline
7 dips to 2%1%
Continued strikes in Lebanon reinforced the focus on existing conflict zones rather than new countries, keeping the probability low.
Dec 9 2025
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise
4 rises to 13%3%
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise further
Nov 28 2025
Israeli forces raid Beit Jinn in southern Syria, killing at least 13 people including two children, after locals resisted the incursion;
3 plunges to 20%27%
the Israeli military targeted suspected Islamist militants and used air support during withdrawal
Nov 23 2025
Israel kills senior Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike, escalating tensions in Lebanon but not expanding to new countries
7 plunges to 4%40%
This strike in Beirut marked a significant escalation in Lebanon but did not indicate new countries being targeted, contributing to the sharp drop in probability.
Nov 22 2025
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike,
8 dips to 2%1%
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike, nudging the odds upward before the market steadied at low levels.
Nov 19 2025
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets
8 dips to 3%2%
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets inside Syrian territory, confirming another cross‑border strike and causing a modest uptick that quickly receded.
Nov 9 2025
Israel bombs Hamas headquarters in Qatar targeting Hamas leadership, marking cross-border strikes beyond immediate neighbors
10 plunges to 5%42%
This event showed Israel striking outside its immediate borders but limited to a few countries, reducing the likelihood of 10 countries being struck in 2026.
May 31 2025
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria)
8 dips to 5%3%
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria) added another foreign country to the tally, briefly boosting the market before the
Feb 10 2025
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the
8 plunges to 8%42%
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the Syria‑Lebanon border, marking the first reported Israeli strike on Lebanese soil in 2026‑type forecasting and prompting a sharp rise in the “8‑countries” probability.
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Câu hỏi thường gặp
"Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 16 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "5" ở mức 36%, tiếp theo là "4" ở mức 30%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 36¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 36% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.
Tính đến hôm nay, "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?" đã tạo $6.7 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Nov 13, 2025. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.
Để giao dịch trên "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?," duyệt 16 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.
Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?" là "5" ở mức 36%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 36% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "4" ở mức 30%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.
Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.
Có. Bạn không cần giao dịch để cập nhật thông tin. Trang này đóng vai trò theo dõi trực tiếp cho "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?." Xác suất kết quả cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi có giao dịch mới. Bạn có thể đánh dấu trang này và kiểm tra phần bình luận để xem trader khác đang nói gì. Bạn cũng có thể sử dụng bộ lọc khoảng thời gian trên biểu đồ để xem tỷ lệ đã thay đổi thế nào. Đây là cửa sổ miễn phí, thời gian thực vào điều thị trường kỳ vọng sẽ xảy ra.
Tỷ lệ Polymarket được đặt bởi trader thực đặt tiền thực đằng sau niềm tin, có xu hướng đưa ra dự đoán chính xác. Với $6.7 million được giao dịch trên "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?," giá này tổng hợp kiến thức và niềm tin tập thể của hàng nghìn người tham gia — thường vượt trội hơn thăm dò, dự báo chuyên gia và khảo sát truyền thống. Thị trường dự đoán như Polymarket có thành tích chính xác mạnh, đặc biệt khi sự kiện tiến gần ngày giải quyết. Ví dụ, Polymarket có điểm chính xác một tháng là 94%. Để biết thống kê mới nhất về độ chính xác dự đoán của Polymarket, truy cập trang độ chính xác trên Polymarket.
Để đặt lệnh đầu tiên trên "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?," đăng ký tài khoản Polymarket miễn phí và nạp tiền bằng crypto, thẻ tín dụng hoặc ghi nợ, hoặc chuyển khoản ngân hàng. Khi tài khoản đã được nạp, quay lại trang này, chọn kết quả bạn muốn giao dịch, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu bạn mới với thị trường dự đoán, nhấn liên kết "Cách hoạt động" ở đầu bất kỳ trang Polymarket nào để xem hướng dẫn từng bước nhanh về cách giao dịch.
Trên Polymarket, giá của mỗi kết quả đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Giá 36¢ cho "5" trong thị trường "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?" nghĩa là trader tập thể tin rằng có khoảng 36% khả năng "5" sẽ là kết quả đúng. Nếu bạn mua cổ phần "Có" ở 36¢ và kết quả đúng, bạn nhận $1.00 mỗi cổ phần — lợi nhuận 64¢ mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, cổ phần đó giá trị $0.
Thị trường "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?" dự kiến giải quyết vào hoặc khoảng Dec 31, 2026. Điều này có nghĩa giao dịch vẫn mở và tỷ lệ tiếp tục thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện cho đến ngày đó. Thời gian giải quyết chính xác phụ thuộc vào khi kết quả chính thức có sẵn, như được nêu trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này.
Thị trường "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?" có cộng đồng sôi động với 512 bình luận nơi trader chia sẻ phân tích, tranh luận kết quả và thảo luận diễn biến mới nhất. Cuộn xuống phần bình luận bên dưới để đọc ý kiến từ người tham gia khác. Bạn cũng có thể lọc theo "Người nắm giữ hàng đầu" để xem trader lớn nhất đang đặt cược vào đâu, hoặc kiểm tra tab "Hoạt động" cho dữ liệu giao dịch theo thời gian thực.
Polymarket là thị trường dự đoán lớn nhất thế giới, nơi bạn có thể cập nhật thông tin và kiếm lợi nhuận từ kiến thức về sự kiện thực tế. Trader mua và bán cổ phần trên kết quả cho các chủ đề từ chính trị và bầu cử đến crypto, tài chính, thể thao, công nghệ và văn hoá, bao gồm các thị trường như "Israel sẽ tấn công bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?." Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực được hỗ trợ bởi niềm tin tài chính, thường cung cấp tín hiệu nhanh và chính xác hơn thăm dò, bình luận viên hoặc khảo sát truyền thống.
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