Recent U.S.-brokered talks produced a June 2026 trilateral framework committing Israel and Lebanon to phased IDF withdrawal, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in the south, Hezbollah disarmament under UNSCR 1701, and an eventual end to the state of war. Hezbollah’s explicit rejection of the accord, combined with resumed Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon in early August amid ongoing Rome negotiations, has kept implementation stalled. Lebanon’s domestic political constraints, including anti-normalization statutes and coalition dynamics, further limit rapid progress toward full diplomatic relations, prisoner exchanges, or border security pacts. With only months remaining before 2027, traders assign low probability to completion of these steps.