Lebanon’s fragmented political landscape and history of short-lived cabinets create near-even odds on whether Nawaf Salam will leave office before the end of 2026. Salam’s government, formed in early 2025 under President Joseph Aoun, has advanced banking reforms, reconstruction planning, and ceasefire talks with Israel, bolstered by international engagement including recent meetings with French and U.S. officials. These steps have strengthened his position amid Hezbollah’s diminished influence. At the same time, traditional coalition pressures, potential parliamentary elections, and any renewed security tensions could quickly shift alliances and force a cabinet change. Traders weigh the current reform momentum against Lebanon’s structural volatility when assessing the slim edge for continuity.