Longtime Democratic incumbent Frank Pallone faces Republican Hillary Herzig in New Jersey’s 6th congressional district on November 3, 2026, with traders assigning the GOP just 3% odds of victory and concentrating probability on Democratic margins between 15% and 40%. Pallone secured renomination in the June 2 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote despite progressive challengers drawing about one-third combined, underscoring his durable base in a district rated Solid Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, and other forecasters. Herzig, a first-time candidate and former federal civil servant, ran unopposed in the Republican primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that has favored Democrats by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Limited outside spending, the absence of major scandals or national waves shifting the race, and Pallone’s decades-long incumbency continue to anchor market pricing around comfortable Democratic margins while leaving modest room for late-cycle turnout or economic shifts to adjust the spread.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNJ-06 House Election Margin of Victory
NJ-06 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 25-30% 39%
Democrat 35-40% 32%
Democrat 30-35% 31%
Democrat 15-20% 30%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 40%+
29%
Democrat 35-40%
32%
Democrat 30-35%
31%
Democrat 25-30%
39%
Democrat 20-25%
26%
Democrat 15-20%
30%
Democrat 10-15%
26%
Democrat 0-10%
24%
Republican Wins
3%
Democrat 25-30% 39%
Democrat 35-40% 32%
Democrat 30-35% 31%
Democrat 15-20% 30%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 40%+
$20 KL.
29%
Democrat 35-40%
$20 KL.
32%
Democrat 30-35%
$20 KL.
31%
Democrat 25-30%
$20 KL.
39%
Democrat 20-25%
$20 KL.
26%
Democrat 15-20%
$20 KL.
30%
Democrat 10-15%
$20 KL.
26%
Democrat 0-10%
$20 KL.
24%
Republican Wins
$40 KL.
3%
The 2026 NJ-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Longtime Democratic incumbent Frank Pallone faces Republican Hillary Herzig in New Jersey’s 6th congressional district on November 3, 2026, with traders assigning the GOP just 3% odds of victory and concentrating probability on Democratic margins between 15% and 40%. Pallone secured renomination in the June 2 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote despite progressive challengers drawing about one-third combined, underscoring his durable base in a district rated Solid Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, and other forecasters. Herzig, a first-time candidate and former federal civil servant, ran unopposed in the Republican primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that has favored Democrats by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Limited outside spending, the absence of major scandals or national waves shifting the race, and Pallone’s decades-long incumbency continue to anchor market pricing around comfortable Democratic margins while leaving modest room for late-cycle turnout or economic shifts to adjust the spread.
The 2026 NJ-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$200Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NJ-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Longtime Democratic incumbent Frank Pallone faces Republican Hillary Herzig in New Jersey’s 6th congressional district on November 3, 2026, with traders assigning the GOP just 3% odds of victory and concentrating probability on Democratic margins between 15% and 40%. Pallone secured renomination in the June 2 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote despite progressive challengers drawing about one-third combined, underscoring his durable base in a district rated Solid Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, and other forecasters. Herzig, a first-time candidate and former federal civil servant, ran unopposed in the Republican primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that has favored Democrats by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Limited outside spending, the absence of major scandals or national waves shifting the race, and Pallone’s decades-long incumbency continue to anchor market pricing around comfortable Democratic margins while leaving modest room for late-cycle turnout or economic shifts to adjust the spread.
The 2026 NJ-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$200Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Longtime Democratic incumbent Frank Pallone faces Republican Hillary Herzig in New Jersey’s 6th congressional district on November 3, 2026, with traders assigning the GOP just 3% odds of victory and concentrating probability on Democratic margins between 15% and 40%. Pallone secured renomination in the June 2 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote despite progressive challengers drawing about one-third combined, underscoring his durable base in a district rated Solid Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, and other forecasters. Herzig, a first-time candidate and former federal civil servant, ran unopposed in the Republican primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that has favored Democrats by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Limited outside spending, the absence of major scandals or national waves shifting the race, and Pallone’s decades-long incumbency continue to anchor market pricing around comfortable Democratic margins while leaving modest room for late-cycle turnout or economic shifts to adjust the spread.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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