Recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place BSW at 4–5%, with the latest readings from pollytix (12 August) and Infratest dimap (late July) at 4% and INSA (10 August) at 5%. Aggregated trends sit near 4.3%, reflecting limited upward movement since spring. The party is contesting the state parliament for the first time after splitting from Die Linke in 2024. It achieved 11.3% in the 2025 federal election in Sachsen-Anhalt but has faced challenges building local structures and membership. Co-lead candidates Thomas Schulze and Claudia Wittig were selected in March 2026, and Sahra Wagenknecht has scheduled campaign appearances, yet these efforts have not produced a sustained polling lift above the 5% entry threshold. Established competitors, particularly Die Linke at 13%, continue to draw support on the left. With the election less than three weeks away and BSW values remaining at or below the hurdle in nearly all recent surveys, traders assign an 83% probability to an “Under 5%” outcome. Minor last-minute shifts remain possible but would need to exceed observed volatility to alter the current consensus.