Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds 326 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed for direct amendment without one. Despite June statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and AKP officials expressing hopes for progress in 2026-2027, preparatory commission work has not produced cross-party consensus, and the main opposition CHP has declined to engage. Recent political focus has instead centered on using Article 116 to advance the 2028 presidential and parliamentary elections by weeks, allowing President Erdoğan a third term without altering term-limit provisions. These structural and procedural barriers, combined with the absence of any announced referendum timeline, underpin the 90.5% trader consensus against meaningful movement on a new constitution before year-end.