Despite President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s renewed public calls in May 2026 for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, along with ongoing AKP commission work on proposals, traders assign a 78% probability that Turkey will not advance the process this year. Constitutional overhaul requires either a three-fifths parliamentary majority for amendments or a popular referendum, both of which face resistance from opposition parties lacking consensus on core issues such as presidential powers and rights provisions. Recent developments, including preparatory briefings expected after the next commission meeting and references to a “year of reform,” remain at the discussion stage without scheduled votes or legislative drafts. This gap between stated intentions and procedural hurdles explains the current trader consensus.