Recent developments in U.S. defense policy center on the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which enacted automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting December 2026 but left the Military Selective Service Act unchanged and did not authorize induction into the armed forces. No bills amending that statute to enable conscription have advanced through Congress this year, consistent with the all-volunteer force structure maintained since 1973. Bipartisan proposals to repeal or defund the Selective Service System further underscore limited appetite for draft activation. Traders assign 95.5% probability to “No” because any authorization would require explicit legislative action before year-end, a threshold unmet amid stable geopolitical conditions and procedural barriers. Late-session escalation in overseas conflicts or sudden congressional action remain the primary variables that could alter the implied probability.