The U.S. military has operated as an all-volunteer force since Congress allowed the draft authority to expire in 1973, and no legislation has been introduced or advanced in 2026 to reinstate conscription. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act updated Selective Service registration to automatic processes effective December 2026, yet this change only streamlines the existing database and does not authorize or trigger induction. Public polling shows consistent opposition to a draft, and the Trump administration has indicated no current plans despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the prior Iran conflict. Reinstating conscription would require separate congressional action and presidential approval, creating high procedural and political barriers. Trader consensus at 95.6% for “No” reflects the absence of these preconditions through late August. A sudden large-scale escalation demanding manpower far beyond volunteer recruitment or recruitment shortfalls could still shift probabilities if Congress acts before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4% khả năng
$524,099 KL.
$524,099 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
4% khả năng
$524,099 KL.
$524,099 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military has operated as an all-volunteer force since Congress allowed the draft authority to expire in 1973, and no legislation has been introduced or advanced in 2026 to reinstate conscription. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act updated Selective Service registration to automatic processes effective December 2026, yet this change only streamlines the existing database and does not authorize or trigger induction. Public polling shows consistent opposition to a draft, and the Trump administration has indicated no current plans despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the prior Iran conflict. Reinstating conscription would require separate congressional action and presidential approval, creating high procedural and political barriers. Trader consensus at 95.6% for “No” reflects the absence of these preconditions through late August. A sudden large-scale escalation demanding manpower far beyond volunteer recruitment or recruitment shortfalls could still shift probabilities if Congress acts before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Khối lượng
$524,099Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military has operated as an all-volunteer force since Congress allowed the draft authority to expire in 1973, and no legislation has been introduced or advanced in 2026 to reinstate conscription. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act updated Selective Service registration to automatic processes effective December 2026, yet this change only streamlines the existing database and does not authorize or trigger induction. Public polling shows consistent opposition to a draft, and the Trump administration has indicated no current plans despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the prior Iran conflict. Reinstating conscription would require separate congressional action and presidential approval, creating high procedural and political barriers. Trader consensus at 95.6% for “No” reflects the absence of these preconditions through late August. A sudden large-scale escalation demanding manpower far beyond volunteer recruitment or recruitment shortfalls could still shift probabilities if Congress acts before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$524,099Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The U.S. military has operated as an all-volunteer force since Congress allowed the draft authority to expire in 1973, and no legislation has been introduced or advanced in 2026 to reinstate conscription. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act updated Selective Service registration to automatic processes effective December 2026, yet this change only streamlines the existing database and does not authorize or trigger induction. Public polling shows consistent opposition to a draft, and the Trump administration has indicated no current plans despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the prior Iran conflict. Reinstating conscription would require separate congressional action and presidential approval, creating high procedural and political barriers. Trader consensus at 95.6% for “No” reflects the absence of these preconditions through late August. A sudden large-scale escalation demanding manpower far beyond volunteer recruitment or recruitment shortfalls could still shift probabilities if Congress acts before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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