Recent data show Dallas-Fort Worth median sale prices hovering near $389,000–$399,000 through August and September 2026, reflecting a market in transition after earlier corrections. Elevated inventory from sustained new construction, combined with 30-year mortgage rates near 6–7 percent, has slowed sales and given buyers modest leverage, keeping year-over-year price changes flat to slightly negative. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered because these supply-demand dynamics could produce outcomes across the $379,000–$399,000 range depending on fourth-quarter transaction volumes and any late-year shifts in Treasury yields or Fed policy. Key upcoming catalysts include October–December housing reports and any further rate movements that would influence buyer affordability and closing activity before year-end resolution.