Anthropic holds a strong 76% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October due to its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series consistently posting the highest verified scores across recent snapshots, driven by superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 18% despite competitive GPT-6 Astra and o3-mini variants, reflecting a narrower gap in some dynamic leaderboards but repeated shortfalls against Anthropic's latest releases. Other labs including Google, Meta, and DeepSeek remain below 1% as their models lag in independent benchmark aggregates. Traders are weighting Anthropic's recent model updates and sustained frontier positioning ahead of the October resolution, though new releases or scoring changes could still shift outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 76%
OpenAI 20%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$22,953 KL.
$22,953 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
76%
OpenAI
20%
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 76%
OpenAI 20%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$22,953 KL.
$22,953 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,597 KL.
76%
OpenAI
$3,716 KL.
20%
$613 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$525 KL.
1%
Meta
$760 KL.
1%
Moonshot
$555 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$515 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$476 KL.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$463 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$512 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$523 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$479 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$513 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$454 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$446 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$482 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$441 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$417 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$529 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$479 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a strong 76% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October due to its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series consistently posting the highest verified scores across recent snapshots, driven by superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 18% despite competitive GPT-6 Astra and o3-mini variants, reflecting a narrower gap in some dynamic leaderboards but repeated shortfalls against Anthropic's latest releases. Other labs including Google, Meta, and DeepSeek remain below 1% as their models lag in independent benchmark aggregates. Traders are weighting Anthropic's recent model updates and sustained frontier positioning ahead of the October resolution, though new releases or scoring changes could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$22,953Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a strong 76% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October due to its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series consistently posting the highest verified scores across recent snapshots, driven by superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 18% despite competitive GPT-6 Astra and o3-mini variants, reflecting a narrower gap in some dynamic leaderboards but repeated shortfalls against Anthropic's latest releases. Other labs including Google, Meta, and DeepSeek remain below 1% as their models lag in independent benchmark aggregates. Traders are weighting Anthropic's recent model updates and sustained frontier positioning ahead of the October resolution, though new releases or scoring changes could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Khối lượng
$22,953Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a strong 76% implied probability on the LiveBench overall leaderboard through end of October due to its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series consistently posting the highest verified scores across recent snapshots, driven by superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 18% despite competitive GPT-6 Astra and o3-mini variants, reflecting a narrower gap in some dynamic leaderboards but repeated shortfalls against Anthropic's latest releases. Other labs including Google, Meta, and DeepSeek remain below 1% as their models lag in independent benchmark aggregates. Traders are weighting Anthropic's recent model updates and sustained frontier positioning ahead of the October resolution, though new releases or scoring changes could still shift outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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