Traders see a fragmented field with no dominant leader as multiple frontier text-to-video systems trade near the top of the order book. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 leads several Artificial Analysis leaderboards with strong multi-shot and audio integration, while Google’s Veo 3.1 earns frequent praise for realism, prompt adherence, and native audio in independent tests. Kling 3.0 and Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 deliver competitive cinematic quality and physics at lower cost, keeping their implied probabilities in the low-to-mid 30s. OpenAI Sora 2 and Runway Gen-4 trail in current market pricing, reflecting slower perceived progress on consistency and commercial features. With resolution still months away, upcoming model updates, benchmark releases, and access expansions remain the main swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGoogle 30%
Luma AI 20.9%
KlingAI 18%
Tencent 17%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
30%
Luma AI
11%
KlingAI
18%
Tencent
15%
Pika
25%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
9%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
19%
Pruna
12%
SpaceXAI
9%
Pixverse
7%
Kandinsky
4%
Runway
3%
Lightricks
3%
MiniMax
1%
Genmo AI
1%
OpenAI
8%
Google 30%
Luma AI 20.9%
KlingAI 18%
Tencent 17%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
$104 KL.
30%
Luma AI
$137 KL.
11%
KlingAI
$84 KL.
18%
Tencent
$104 KL.
15%
Pika
$84 KL.
25%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$65 KL.
9%
ByteDance
$104 KL.
15%
Meta
$84 KL.
19%
Pruna
$64 KL.
12%
SpaceXAI
$84 KL.
9%
Pixverse
$84 KL.
7%
Kandinsky
$79 KL.
4%
Runway
$71 KL.
3%
Lightricks
$80 KL.
3%
MiniMax
$104 KL.
1%
Genmo AI
$106 KL.
1%
OpenAI
$98 KL.
8%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a fragmented field with no dominant leader as multiple frontier text-to-video systems trade near the top of the order book. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 leads several Artificial Analysis leaderboards with strong multi-shot and audio integration, while Google’s Veo 3.1 earns frequent praise for realism, prompt adherence, and native audio in independent tests. Kling 3.0 and Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 deliver competitive cinematic quality and physics at lower cost, keeping their implied probabilities in the low-to-mid 30s. OpenAI Sora 2 and Runway Gen-4 trail in current market pricing, reflecting slower perceived progress on consistency and commercial features. With resolution still months away, upcoming model updates, benchmark releases, and access expansions remain the main swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,541Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a fragmented field with no dominant leader as multiple frontier text-to-video systems trade near the top of the order book. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 leads several Artificial Analysis leaderboards with strong multi-shot and audio integration, while Google’s Veo 3.1 earns frequent praise for realism, prompt adherence, and native audio in independent tests. Kling 3.0 and Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 deliver competitive cinematic quality and physics at lower cost, keeping their implied probabilities in the low-to-mid 30s. OpenAI Sora 2 and Runway Gen-4 trail in current market pricing, reflecting slower perceived progress on consistency and commercial features. With resolution still months away, upcoming model updates, benchmark releases, and access expansions remain the main swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$1,541Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a fragmented field with no dominant leader as multiple frontier text-to-video systems trade near the top of the order book. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 leads several Artificial Analysis leaderboards with strong multi-shot and audio integration, while Google’s Veo 3.1 earns frequent praise for realism, prompt adherence, and native audio in independent tests. Kling 3.0 and Alibaba’s HappyHorse-1.0 deliver competitive cinematic quality and physics at lower cost, keeping their implied probabilities in the low-to-mid 30s. OpenAI Sora 2 and Runway Gen-4 trail in current market pricing, reflecting slower perceived progress on consistency and commercial features. With resolution still months away, upcoming model updates, benchmark releases, and access expansions remain the main swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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