Democrat Rebecca Cooke defeated Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden by roughly 6.6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026, Wisconsin 3rd congressional district election, aligning with the market's dominant 6-9% outcome priced at 94%. Traders priced this range heavily after preliminary results showed Cooke at 52.4% to Van Orden's 45.8%, driven by her stronger performance in urban counties such as Eau Claire and La Crosse, substantial campaign spending advantages, and a broader Democratic shift across Wisconsin battlegrounds. Van Orden conceded on election night following a rematch where he had won narrowly in 2024. Late precinct reporting or official canvassing could produce minor adjustments within the 6-9% band, though independent candidates captured under 2% combined and no structural factors suggest a reversal outside that range.