Trader consensus on the market-implied odds for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the Atlantic basin’s climatological pattern, where over 97 percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs after the official June 1 start of hurricane season. National Hurricane Center outlooks issued since May 15 show no disturbances with development potential through the end of the month, consistent with current sea-surface temperatures and wind shear that suppress early formation. Historical records confirm only a handful of pre-June landfalls since 1851, all under atypical conditions not present now. While an unexpected rapid intensification of an early tropical wave remains theoretically possible before May 31, the absence of supporting model signals and the two-week gap until the season’s conventional start sustain strong conviction in the current positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$26,085 KL.
$26,085 KL.
May 31, 2026
$26,085 KL.
$26,085 KL.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on the market-implied odds for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the Atlantic basin’s climatological pattern, where over 97 percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs after the official June 1 start of hurricane season. National Hurricane Center outlooks issued since May 15 show no disturbances with development potential through the end of the month, consistent with current sea-surface temperatures and wind shear that suppress early formation. Historical records confirm only a handful of pre-June landfalls since 1851, all under atypical conditions not present now. While an unexpected rapid intensification of an early tropical wave remains theoretically possible before May 31, the absence of supporting model signals and the two-week gap until the season’s conventional start sustain strong conviction in the current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Thị trường mở: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,085Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on the market-implied odds for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the Atlantic basin’s climatological pattern, where over 97 percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs after the official June 1 start of hurricane season. National Hurricane Center outlooks issued since May 15 show no disturbances with development potential through the end of the month, consistent with current sea-surface temperatures and wind shear that suppress early formation. Historical records confirm only a handful of pre-June landfalls since 1851, all under atypical conditions not present now. While an unexpected rapid intensification of an early tropical wave remains theoretically possible before May 31, the absence of supporting model signals and the two-week gap until the season’s conventional start sustain strong conviction in the current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Khối lượng
$26,085Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the market-implied odds for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the Atlantic basin’s climatological pattern, where over 97 percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs after the official June 1 start of hurricane season. National Hurricane Center outlooks issued since May 15 show no disturbances with development potential through the end of the month, consistent with current sea-surface temperatures and wind shear that suppress early formation. Historical records confirm only a handful of pre-June landfalls since 1851, all under atypical conditions not present now. While an unexpected rapid intensification of an early tropical wave remains theoretically possible before May 31, the absence of supporting model signals and the two-week gap until the season’s conventional start sustain strong conviction in the current positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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