Recent low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent, tied for record low at 14.29 million sq km in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, has set the stage for a below-average melt season minimum. Persistent warm temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and early marginal sea melt have kept 2026 extent tracking near or below recent lows through early August. Forecasts from models and agencies, including a May projection of 4.49 million sq km by mid-September, align with trader emphasis on the 4.4-4.8 million sq km range as the most probable outcome. Ongoing monitoring through the peak melt period will refine these market-implied probabilities as new observational data emerges.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 40.1%
4.6-4.8m sq km 27.7%
4.2-4.4m sq km 22.1%
<4m sq km 13%
$67,193 KL.
$67,193 KL.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
13%
4.0-4.2m sq km
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
20%
4.4-4.6m sq km
40%
4.6-4.8m sq km
28%
4.8-5m sq km
3%
5m+ sq km
5%
4.4-4.6m sq km 40.1%
4.6-4.8m sq km 27.7%
4.2-4.4m sq km 22.1%
<4m sq km 13%
$67,193 KL.
$67,193 KL.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,436 KL.
13%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,551 KL.
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,920 KL.
20%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,128 KL.
40%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,805 KL.
28%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,898 KL.
3%
5m+ sq km
$14,455 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent, tied for record low at 14.29 million sq km in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, has set the stage for a below-average melt season minimum. Persistent warm temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and early marginal sea melt have kept 2026 extent tracking near or below recent lows through early August. Forecasts from models and agencies, including a May projection of 4.49 million sq km by mid-September, align with trader emphasis on the 4.4-4.8 million sq km range as the most probable outcome. Ongoing monitoring through the peak melt period will refine these market-implied probabilities as new observational data emerges.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Thị trường mở: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$67,193Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent, tied for record low at 14.29 million sq km in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, has set the stage for a below-average melt season minimum. Persistent warm temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and early marginal sea melt have kept 2026 extent tracking near or below recent lows through early August. Forecasts from models and agencies, including a May projection of 4.49 million sq km by mid-September, align with trader emphasis on the 4.4-4.8 million sq km range as the most probable outcome. Ongoing monitoring through the peak melt period will refine these market-implied probabilities as new observational data emerges.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Khối lượng
$67,193Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum Arctic sea ice extent, tied for record low at 14.29 million sq km in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, has set the stage for a below-average melt season minimum. Persistent warm temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and early marginal sea melt have kept 2026 extent tracking near or below recent lows through early August. Forecasts from models and agencies, including a May projection of 4.49 million sq km by mid-September, align with trader emphasis on the 4.4-4.8 million sq km range as the most probable outcome. Ongoing monitoring through the peak melt period will refine these market-implied probabilities as new observational data emerges.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp