The market's leading outcome for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer stems from sustained long-term decline driven by Arctic amplification and thinner, younger ice cover. Satellite observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show September minima averaging near 4.0 million square kilometers in recent years, well below the 1981-2010 baseline of 6.2 million. Warmer ocean temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and albedo feedback continue to accelerate melt. Early 2026 spring conditions, including above-average air temperatures over the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, reinforce trader expectations. Summer weather patterns such as persistent high-pressure systems could intensify losses, though natural variability in melt season length introduces uncertainty ahead of peak extent measurements in September.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.0%
4.2-4.4m sq km 12.4%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.8%
$48,529 KL.
$48,529 KL.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
12%
4.4-4.6m sq km
9%
4.6-4.8m sq km
6%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
2%
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.0%
4.2-4.4m sq km 12.4%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.8%
$48,529 KL.
$48,529 KL.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,113 KL.
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,380 KL.
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,313 KL.
12%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,381 KL.
9%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,948 KL.
6%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 KL.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The market's leading outcome for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer stems from sustained long-term decline driven by Arctic amplification and thinner, younger ice cover. Satellite observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show September minima averaging near 4.0 million square kilometers in recent years, well below the 1981-2010 baseline of 6.2 million. Warmer ocean temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and albedo feedback continue to accelerate melt. Early 2026 spring conditions, including above-average air temperatures over the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, reinforce trader expectations. Summer weather patterns such as persistent high-pressure systems could intensify losses, though natural variability in melt season length introduces uncertainty ahead of peak extent measurements in September.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Thị trường mở: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$48,529Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The market's leading outcome for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer stems from sustained long-term decline driven by Arctic amplification and thinner, younger ice cover. Satellite observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show September minima averaging near 4.0 million square kilometers in recent years, well below the 1981-2010 baseline of 6.2 million. Warmer ocean temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and albedo feedback continue to accelerate melt. Early 2026 spring conditions, including above-average air temperatures over the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, reinforce trader expectations. Summer weather patterns such as persistent high-pressure systems could intensify losses, though natural variability in melt season length introduces uncertainty ahead of peak extent measurements in September.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Khối lượng
$48,529Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market's leading outcome for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer stems from sustained long-term decline driven by Arctic amplification and thinner, younger ice cover. Satellite observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show September minima averaging near 4.0 million square kilometers in recent years, well below the 1981-2010 baseline of 6.2 million. Warmer ocean temperatures, reduced multi-year ice, and albedo feedback continue to accelerate melt. Early 2026 spring conditions, including above-average air temperatures over the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, reinforce trader expectations. Summer weather patterns such as persistent high-pressure systems could intensify losses, though natural variability in melt season length introduces uncertainty ahead of peak extent measurements in September.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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