Record low winter maximum extent tied with 2025 at 14.29 million sq km, combined with fifth-lowest June and ninth-lowest early August extents (around 7 million sq km), anchors trader consensus around 4.4–4.6 million sq km for the September minimum. Thin first-year ice from the prior low-growth season, above-average ocean heat content in the Atlantic sector, and accelerated July melt rates (29% decline) increase vulnerability to rapid late-summer losses, while model projections cluster near 4.49 million sq km. Persistent marginal-sea deficits and variable atmospheric steering patterns create the narrow spread separating leading bins from lower-probability outcomes below 4.2 or above 4.8 million sq km, with new NSIDC and Met Office updates expected to refine positioning before peak melt.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 42.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 22.1%
4.6-4.8m sq km 17.2%
<4m sq km 14%
$67,167 KL.
$67,167 KL.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
14%
4.0-4.2m sq km
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
20%
4.4-4.6m sq km
42%
4.6-4.8m sq km
27%
4.8-5m sq km
3%
5m+ sq km
5%
4.4-4.6m sq km 42.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 22.1%
4.6-4.8m sq km 17.2%
<4m sq km 14%
$67,167 KL.
$67,167 KL.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,431 KL.
14%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,551 KL.
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,920 KL.
20%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,128 KL.
42%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,805 KL.
27%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,876 KL.
3%
5m+ sq km
$14,455 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low winter maximum extent tied with 2025 at 14.29 million sq km, combined with fifth-lowest June and ninth-lowest early August extents (around 7 million sq km), anchors trader consensus around 4.4–4.6 million sq km for the September minimum. Thin first-year ice from the prior low-growth season, above-average ocean heat content in the Atlantic sector, and accelerated July melt rates (29% decline) increase vulnerability to rapid late-summer losses, while model projections cluster near 4.49 million sq km. Persistent marginal-sea deficits and variable atmospheric steering patterns create the narrow spread separating leading bins from lower-probability outcomes below 4.2 or above 4.8 million sq km, with new NSIDC and Met Office updates expected to refine positioning before peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Thị trường mở: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$67,167Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low winter maximum extent tied with 2025 at 14.29 million sq km, combined with fifth-lowest June and ninth-lowest early August extents (around 7 million sq km), anchors trader consensus around 4.4–4.6 million sq km for the September minimum. Thin first-year ice from the prior low-growth season, above-average ocean heat content in the Atlantic sector, and accelerated July melt rates (29% decline) increase vulnerability to rapid late-summer losses, while model projections cluster near 4.49 million sq km. Persistent marginal-sea deficits and variable atmospheric steering patterns create the narrow spread separating leading bins from lower-probability outcomes below 4.2 or above 4.8 million sq km, with new NSIDC and Met Office updates expected to refine positioning before peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Khối lượng
$67,167Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record low winter maximum extent tied with 2025 at 14.29 million sq km, combined with fifth-lowest June and ninth-lowest early August extents (around 7 million sq km), anchors trader consensus around 4.4–4.6 million sq km for the September minimum. Thin first-year ice from the prior low-growth season, above-average ocean heat content in the Atlantic sector, and accelerated July melt rates (29% decline) increase vulnerability to rapid late-summer losses, while model projections cluster near 4.49 million sq km. Persistent marginal-sea deficits and variable atmospheric steering patterns create the narrow spread separating leading bins from lower-probability outcomes below 4.2 or above 4.8 million sq km, with new NSIDC and Met Office updates expected to refine positioning before peak melt.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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