Tesla’s absence of any pending applications for unsupervised robotaxi operations in California underpins the 89% market-implied odds against a June 30 launch. The company holds only an entry-level DMV testing permit that requires a safety driver and has accumulated zero qualifying autonomous miles on public roads, falling short of the 50,000-mile threshold needed before seeking driverless deployment approval. While Tesla has expanded unsupervised Full Self-Driving services in Austin and announced preparations for cities such as Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami in the first half of 2026, it has made no comparable regulatory filings in California. New DMV enforcement rules taking effect July 1 further tighten oversight, leaving insufficient time for the necessary permits, testing data, or CPUC approvals before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$105,864 KL.
$105,864 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$105,864 KL.
$105,864 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s absence of any pending applications for unsupervised robotaxi operations in California underpins the 89% market-implied odds against a June 30 launch. The company holds only an entry-level DMV testing permit that requires a safety driver and has accumulated zero qualifying autonomous miles on public roads, falling short of the 50,000-mile threshold needed before seeking driverless deployment approval. While Tesla has expanded unsupervised Full Self-Driving services in Austin and announced preparations for cities such as Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami in the first half of 2026, it has made no comparable regulatory filings in California. New DMV enforcement rules taking effect July 1 further tighten oversight, leaving insufficient time for the necessary permits, testing data, or CPUC approvals before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$105,864Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s absence of any pending applications for unsupervised robotaxi operations in California underpins the 89% market-implied odds against a June 30 launch. The company holds only an entry-level DMV testing permit that requires a safety driver and has accumulated zero qualifying autonomous miles on public roads, falling short of the 50,000-mile threshold needed before seeking driverless deployment approval. While Tesla has expanded unsupervised Full Self-Driving services in Austin and announced preparations for cities such as Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami in the first half of 2026, it has made no comparable regulatory filings in California. New DMV enforcement rules taking effect July 1 further tighten oversight, leaving insufficient time for the necessary permits, testing data, or CPUC approvals before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$105,864Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s absence of any pending applications for unsupervised robotaxi operations in California underpins the 89% market-implied odds against a June 30 launch. The company holds only an entry-level DMV testing permit that requires a safety driver and has accumulated zero qualifying autonomous miles on public roads, falling short of the 50,000-mile threshold needed before seeking driverless deployment approval. While Tesla has expanded unsupervised Full Self-Driving services in Austin and announced preparations for cities such as Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami in the first half of 2026, it has made no comparable regulatory filings in California. New DMV enforcement rules taking effect July 1 further tighten oversight, leaving insufficient time for the necessary permits, testing data, or CPUC approvals before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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