Tesla’s stalled regulatory progress in California underpins the strong trader consensus against a robotaxi launch by June 30, as the company holds only entry-level Department of Motor Vehicles permits for supervised testing and has filed no applications for driverless operations with the DMV or California Public Utilities Commission. It has logged zero autonomous test miles on public roads in recent years, falling well short of the roughly 50,000 supervised miles typically required before seeking full approval. New enforcement rules effective July 1 will impose operator liability for violations, while unsupervised Full Self-Driving software remains targeted for the fourth quarter. These barriers leave insufficient time for permitting, testing, and deployment of a publicly launched self-driving taxi service before the deadline.