Blue Origin’s New Glenn suffered a catastrophic explosion during a May 2026 static-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36, destroying the booster and damaging the sole pad for the heavy-lift vehicle. Repairs and engine-valve modifications have kept the orbital rocket grounded, with the company publicly targeting a return-to-flight no earlier than December 2026. New Shepard suborbital flights continue without incident, but no orbital tests or launches are scheduled through October 31. Traders therefore assign a 97 percent probability against another explosion, reflecting the absence of near-term flight hardware or pad access. A last-minute pad certification or rushed static-fire attempt could theoretically shift the outcome, though such acceleration remains improbable given documented timelines and safety reviews.