Skip to main content
icon for AZ-01眾議院選舉獲勝者
政治·11月4日選舉

AZ-01眾議院選舉獲勝者

icon for AZ-01眾議院選舉獲勝者
政治·11月4日選舉

AZ-01眾議院選舉獲勝者

Polymarket
最新
Polymarket
最新

民主黨

$5,615 交易量

75%

共和黨

$1,195 交易量

26%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s competitive 1st congressional district, vacated by Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid, anchors trader positioning. Amish Shah’s Democratic primary victory and prior narrow 2024 general-election performance position Democrats with a 75% implied probability, reflecting the district’s R+1 Cook PVI, narrow recent partisan margins, and suburban voter dynamics in the northeastern Phoenix area. Jay Feely’s Republican nomination after defeating primary rivals benefits from Trump endorsement but occurs against polling averages showing Democratic strength in statewide down-ballot races. With the November 3 general election two months away, the race remains a battleground where turnout among independents and shifts in national or state political environment could narrow the gap reflected in current market pricing.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$6,810
結束日期
2026-11-04
市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s competitive 1st congressional district, vacated by Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid, anchors trader positioning. Amish Shah’s Democratic primary victory and prior narrow 2024 general-election performance position Democrats with a 75% implied probability, reflecting the district’s R+1 Cook PVI, narrow recent partisan margins, and suburban voter dynamics in the northeastern Phoenix area. Jay Feely’s Republican nomination after defeating primary rivals benefits from Trump endorsement but occurs against polling averages showing Democratic strength in statewide down-ballot races. With the November 3 general election two months away, the race remains a battleground where turnout among independents and shifts in national or state political environment could narrow the gap reflected in current market pricing.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$6,810
結束日期
2026-11-04
市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

相關

icon for 共和黨會贏得亞利桑那州第二國會選區（AZ-02）的眾議院席位嗎？

共和黨會贏得亞利桑那州第二國會選區（AZ-02）的眾議院席位嗎？

69%
是
icon for 民主黨會贏得亞利桑那第六選區眾議院席位嗎？

民主黨會贏得亞利桑那第六選區眾議院席位嗎？

83%
是
icon for Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?

54%

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-01眾議院選舉獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "民主黨" at 75%, followed by "共和黨" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"AZ-01眾議院選舉獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 16, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "AZ-01眾議院選舉獲勝者," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-01眾議院選舉獲勝者" is "民主黨" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "共和黨" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-01眾議院選舉獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.