Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner advanced from Washington's August 4 top-two primary for the 5th congressional district, positioning the party to defend the seat in the November 3 general election. The district carries a modest Republican partisan voting index and has consistently favored GOP candidates in recent cycles, with nonpartisan forecasters rating it Solid or Safe Republican. Limited general-election polling shows Baumgartner holding leads over likely Democratic and independent opponents, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter base in eastern Washington. Traders assign Republicans a roughly two-thirds probability of retaining the seat, consistent with these fundamentals, though outcomes remain sensitive to turnout patterns and any late shifts in the broader midterm environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$32,063 交易量
$32,063 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
67%
民主黨
34%
$32,063 交易量
$32,063 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
$12,041 交易量
67%
民主黨
$20,022 交易量
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner advanced from Washington's August 4 top-two primary for the 5th congressional district, positioning the party to defend the seat in the November 3 general election. The district carries a modest Republican partisan voting index and has consistently favored GOP candidates in recent cycles, with nonpartisan forecasters rating it Solid or Safe Republican. Limited general-election polling shows Baumgartner holding leads over likely Democratic and independent opponents, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter base in eastern Washington. Traders assign Republicans a roughly two-thirds probability of retaining the seat, consistent with these fundamentals, though outcomes remain sensitive to turnout patterns and any late shifts in the broader midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$32,063結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner advanced from Washington's August 4 top-two primary for the 5th congressional district, positioning the party to defend the seat in the November 3 general election. The district carries a modest Republican partisan voting index and has consistently favored GOP candidates in recent cycles, with nonpartisan forecasters rating it Solid or Safe Republican. Limited general-election polling shows Baumgartner holding leads over likely Democratic and independent opponents, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter base in eastern Washington. Traders assign Republicans a roughly two-thirds probability of retaining the seat, consistent with these fundamentals, though outcomes remain sensitive to turnout patterns and any late shifts in the broader midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,063結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner advanced from Washington's August 4 top-two primary for the 5th congressional district, positioning the party to defend the seat in the November 3 general election. The district carries a modest Republican partisan voting index and has consistently favored GOP candidates in recent cycles, with nonpartisan forecasters rating it Solid or Safe Republican. Limited general-election polling shows Baumgartner holding leads over likely Democratic and independent opponents, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter base in eastern Washington. Traders assign Republicans a roughly two-thirds probability of retaining the seat, consistent with these fundamentals, though outcomes remain sensitive to turnout patterns and any late shifts in the broader midterm environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions