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世界·柏林

柏林州選舉：更多票投給基民盟或社民黨？

icon for 柏林州選舉：更多票投給基民盟或社民黨？
世界·柏林

柏林州選舉：更多票投給基民盟或社民黨？

基民盟（CDU）

86% 機率
Polymarket
最新

基民盟（CDU）

86% 機率
Polymarket
最新
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election shows the CDU consistently ahead of the SPD, with CDU support in the 18–20% range compared to the SPD’s 12–15% across surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap in July and August 2026. This gap reflects the CDU’s stronger position as the largest party in the 2023 repeat election and its role leading the current CDU-SPD governing coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner. National trends have further pressured the SPD, including repeated losses in other 2026 state contests and declining federal standing, while Berlin-specific factors such as coalition performance and voter fragmentation among the Greens, Left Party, and AfD have not narrowed the CDU-SPD margin. Trader consensus at 87.5% for the CDU aligns with these stable polling differentials and the structural challenges facing the SPD heading into the final weeks of the campaign.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$250
結束日期
2026-09-20
市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election shows the CDU consistently ahead of the SPD, with CDU support in the 18–20% range compared to the SPD’s 12–15% across surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap in July and August 2026. This gap reflects the CDU’s stronger position as the largest party in the 2023 repeat election and its role leading the current CDU-SPD governing coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner. National trends have further pressured the SPD, including repeated losses in other 2026 state contests and declining federal standing, while Berlin-specific factors such as coalition performance and voter fragmentation among the Greens, Left Party, and AfD have not narrowed the CDU-SPD margin. Trader consensus at 87.5% for the CDU aligns with these stable polling differentials and the structural challenges facing the SPD heading into the final weeks of the campaign.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$250
結束日期
2026-09-20
市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

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警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"柏林州選舉：更多票投給基民盟或社民黨？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "柏林州選舉：基民盟（CDU）還是社民黨（SPD）獲得更多選票？" at 86%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"柏林州選舉：更多票投給基民盟或社民黨？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "柏林州選舉：更多票投給基民盟或社民黨？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "柏林州選舉：更多票投給基民盟或社民黨？" is "柏林州選舉：基民盟（CDU）還是社民黨（SPD）獲得更多選票？" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "柏林州選舉：更多票投給基民盟或社民黨？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.