Traders are pricing the 40-64 and sub-40 tweet bins highest for Elon Musk’s X activity over August 17-19 because recent early-August data shows a noticeable moderation from his 2025 average of roughly 68 posts daily. Quiet stretches have pulled implied probabilities toward lower ranges, consistent with periods lacking major SpaceX launches, Tesla earnings, or heated political threads that typically drive reply-heavy spikes. Historical variance remains wide—peak days can exceed 150 posts—but the current market consensus reflects observed restraint and the short three-day window. Any breaking news on Starship, Grok features, or regulatory developments could quickly shift momentum toward the 65-89 band before the period closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於40-64 49%
少於40 35%
65-89 14%
90-114 2.1%
$31,592 交易量
$31,592 交易量
2026-08-19
少於40
35%
40-64
49%
65-89
14%
90-114
2%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 49%
少於40 35%
65-89 14%
90-114 2.1%
$31,592 交易量
$31,592 交易量
2026-08-19
少於40
$5,386 交易量
35%
40-64
$7,313 交易量
49%
65-89
$2,649 交易量
14%
90-114
$2,764 交易量
2%
115-139
$3,014 交易量
<1%
140-164
$3,305 交易量
<1%
165-189
$4,973 交易量
<1%
190-214
$1,340 交易量
<1%
215-239
$770 交易量
<1%
240+
$840 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing the 40-64 and sub-40 tweet bins highest for Elon Musk’s X activity over August 17-19 because recent early-August data shows a noticeable moderation from his 2025 average of roughly 68 posts daily. Quiet stretches have pulled implied probabilities toward lower ranges, consistent with periods lacking major SpaceX launches, Tesla earnings, or heated political threads that typically drive reply-heavy spikes. Historical variance remains wide—peak days can exceed 150 posts—but the current market consensus reflects observed restraint and the short three-day window. Any breaking news on Starship, Grok features, or regulatory developments could quickly shift momentum toward the 65-89 band before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$31,592結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing the 40-64 and sub-40 tweet bins highest for Elon Musk’s X activity over August 17-19 because recent early-August data shows a noticeable moderation from his 2025 average of roughly 68 posts daily. Quiet stretches have pulled implied probabilities toward lower ranges, consistent with periods lacking major SpaceX launches, Tesla earnings, or heated political threads that typically drive reply-heavy spikes. Historical variance remains wide—peak days can exceed 150 posts—but the current market consensus reflects observed restraint and the short three-day window. Any breaking news on Starship, Grok features, or regulatory developments could quickly shift momentum toward the 65-89 band before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$31,592結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing the 40-64 and sub-40 tweet bins highest for Elon Musk’s X activity over August 17-19 because recent early-August data shows a noticeable moderation from his 2025 average of roughly 68 posts daily. Quiet stretches have pulled implied probabilities toward lower ranges, consistent with periods lacking major SpaceX launches, Tesla earnings, or heated political threads that typically drive reply-heavy spikes. Historical variance remains wide—peak days can exceed 150 posts—but the current market consensus reflects observed restraint and the short three-day window. Any breaking news on Starship, Grok features, or regulatory developments could quickly shift momentum toward the 65-89 band before the period closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions