**Trader consensus on the full-month August 2026 Elon Musk tweet count centers on the 780–839 range (15.0% implied probability) because real-time trackers show a steady mid-August pace of roughly 22–34 posts per day.** This pace, observed across multiple overlapping Polymarket submarkets, projects a monthly total in the high 700s to low 800s when extrapolated across the remaining days. Shorter windows (Aug 11–18, 14–21, 17–19) have resolved or priced near 25–28 tweets daily on average, with no sustained surge from recent SpaceX earnings commentary, Starship test planning, or Tesla robotaxi updates. Historical peaks exceeding 40–60 posts per day in prior months have not materialized here, keeping higher brackets (880+) thinner while the 700–799 and 800–839 buckets absorb the bulk of volume as the most probable outcomes under current conditions. Variance from any late-month company milestone or viral thread remains the key swing factor that could shift the distribution before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於800-839 15.1%
780-799 13.1%
840-879 11.9%
760-779 11.6%
$146,056 交易量
$146,056 交易量
300-319
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
2%
640-659
2%
660-679
2%
680-699
4%
700-719
5%
720-739
7%
740-759
8%
760-779
12%
780-799
13%
800-839
15%
840-879
12%
880-919
7%
920-959
5%
960-999
2%
1000+
4%
800-839 15.1%
780-799 13.1%
840-879 11.9%
760-779 11.6%
$146,056 交易量
$146,056 交易量
300-319
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
2%
640-659
2%
660-679
2%
680-699
4%
700-719
5%
720-739
7%
740-759
8%
760-779
12%
780-799
13%
800-839
15%
840-879
12%
880-919
7%
920-959
5%
960-999
2%
1000+
4%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the full-month August 2026 Elon Musk tweet count centers on the 780–839 range (15.0% implied probability) because real-time trackers show a steady mid-August pace of roughly 22–34 posts per day.** This pace, observed across multiple overlapping Polymarket submarkets, projects a monthly total in the high 700s to low 800s when extrapolated across the remaining days. Shorter windows (Aug 11–18, 14–21, 17–19) have resolved or priced near 25–28 tweets daily on average, with no sustained surge from recent SpaceX earnings commentary, Starship test planning, or Tesla robotaxi updates. Historical peaks exceeding 40–60 posts per day in prior months have not materialized here, keeping higher brackets (880+) thinner while the 700–799 and 800–839 buckets absorb the bulk of volume as the most probable outcomes under current conditions. Variance from any late-month company milestone or viral thread remains the key swing factor that could shift the distribution before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions