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科技·AI

在2026年人類的最後一次考試中， Google Gemini得分最高？

icon for 在2026年人類的最後一次考試中， Google Gemini得分最高？
科技·AI

在2026年人類的最後一次考試中， Google Gemini得分最高？

最新
2026-12-31
Polymarket

$1,503 交易量

Polymarket

50% 以上

$222 交易量

69%

55%+

$20 交易量

46%

60% 以上

$623 交易量

21%

65%及以上

$272 交易量

16%

70% 以上

$366 交易量

10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google DeepMind's rapid iteration on the Gemini series, including the 2025 launch of Gemini 3 Pro and subsequent 2026 previews like Gemini 3.1 Pro, drives current trader focus on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing expert-level reasoning across disciplines. Recent Gemini variants have posted scores in the 37–45% range on HLE, trailing leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 53%, yet Google's integration of advanced reasoning modes and scale advantages could narrow gaps through 2026. Key catalysts include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and direct benchmark comparisons with GPT and Claude iterations that historically shift leaderboard positions. Traders watch for confirmed capability jumps versus incremental gains amid typical release timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$1,503
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google DeepMind's rapid iteration on the Gemini series, including the 2025 launch of Gemini 3 Pro and subsequent 2026 previews like Gemini 3.1 Pro, drives current trader focus on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question benchmark testing expert-level reasoning across disciplines. Recent Gemini variants have posted scores in the 37–45% range on HLE, trailing leaders like Claude Fable 5 at 53%, yet Google's integration of advanced reasoning modes and scale advantages could narrow gaps through 2026. Key catalysts include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and direct benchmark comparisons with GPT and Claude iterations that historically shift leaderboard positions. Traders watch for confirmed capability jumps versus incremental gains amid typical release timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$1,503
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"在2026年人類的最後一次考試中， Google Gemini得分最高？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "50% 以上" at 69%, followed by "55%+" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"在2026年人類的最後一次考試中， Google Gemini得分最高？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "在2026年人類的最後一次考試中， Google Gemini得分最高？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "在2026年人類的最後一次考試中， Google Gemini得分最高？" is "50% 以上" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "55%+" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "在2026年人類的最後一次考試中， Google Gemini得分最高？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.