Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF guidance, and AEMET indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting strong daytime solar heating and a daily high near 31–32 °C. This places the market-implied probability peak at 32 °C, consistent with the ongoing above-average warmth observed through early September 2026, when several days exceeded 34 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows a 1991–2020 average high of 27.3 °C, underscoring the current positive anomaly. With resolution only two days away, ensemble spread remains narrow, limiting upside risk to 33 °C or higher while keeping lower outcomes (30 °C or below) as lower-probability outliers unless unexpected cloud cover develops. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final data for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月12日馬德裏氣溫最高？
32°C 58%
31°C 26%
33°C 12%
34°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
27°C或以下
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
3%
31°C
26%
32°C
58%
33°C
12%
34°C
7%
35°C
5%
36°C
1%
37°C或以上
<1%
32°C 58%
31°C 26%
33°C 12%
34°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
27°C或以下
$0 交易量
1%
28°C
$24 交易量
1%
29°C
$0 交易量
4%
30°C
$0 交易量
3%
31°C
$72 交易量
26%
32°C
$524 交易量
58%
33°C
$23 交易量
12%
34°C
$5 交易量
7%
35°C
$0 交易量
5%
36°C
$0 交易量
1%
37°C或以上
$25 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF guidance, and AEMET indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting strong daytime solar heating and a daily high near 31–32 °C. This places the market-implied probability peak at 32 °C, consistent with the ongoing above-average warmth observed through early September 2026, when several days exceeded 34 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows a 1991–2020 average high of 27.3 °C, underscoring the current positive anomaly. With resolution only two days away, ensemble spread remains narrow, limiting upside risk to 33 °C or higher while keeping lower outcomes (30 °C or below) as lower-probability outliers unless unexpected cloud cover develops. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$673結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF guidance, and AEMET indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting strong daytime solar heating and a daily high near 31–32 °C. This places the market-implied probability peak at 32 °C, consistent with the ongoing above-average warmth observed through early September 2026, when several days exceeded 34 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows a 1991–2020 average high of 27.3 °C, underscoring the current positive anomaly. With resolution only two days away, ensemble spread remains narrow, limiting upside risk to 33 °C or higher while keeping lower outcomes (30 °C or below) as lower-probability outliers unless unexpected cloud cover develops. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$673結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent official forecasts from sources including GFS, ECMWF guidance, and AEMET indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting strong daytime solar heating and a daily high near 31–32 °C. This places the market-implied probability peak at 32 °C, consistent with the ongoing above-average warmth observed through early September 2026, when several days exceeded 34 °C. Historical climatology for the date shows a 1991–2020 average high of 27.3 °C, underscoring the current positive anomaly. With resolution only two days away, ensemble spread remains narrow, limiting upside risk to 33 °C or higher while keeping lower outcomes (30 °C or below) as lower-probability outliers unless unexpected cloud cover develops. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the final data for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions