Clear skies and calm winds under a stable high-pressure system are driving radiative cooling overnight in Madrid, with official forecasts and numerical models converging on a minimum near 12°C. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact low, well below the 16.2°C climatological average yet consistent with observed conditions on September 11. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of significant cloud cover or advection that could limit cooling. A realistic challenge would require last-minute model revisions showing increased humidity, unexpected southeasterly flow, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary station.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月11日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月11日馬德裏最低氣溫？
12°C 100.0%
11°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$1,129 交易量
$1,129 交易量
2026-09-11
11°C或以下
否
12°C
是
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C或更高
否
12°C 100.0%
11°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$1,129 交易量
$1,129 交易量
2026-09-11
11°C或以下
$350 交易量
否
12°C
$310 交易量
是
13°C
$31 交易量
否
14°C
$118 交易量
否
15°C
$250 交易量
否
16°C
$0 交易量
否
17°C
$0 交易量
否
18°C
$0 交易量
否
19°C
$15 交易量
否
20°C
$40 交易量
否
21°C或更高
$15 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and calm winds under a stable high-pressure system are driving radiative cooling overnight in Madrid, with official forecasts and numerical models converging on a minimum near 12°C. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact low, well below the 16.2°C climatological average yet consistent with observed conditions on September 11. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of significant cloud cover or advection that could limit cooling. A realistic challenge would require last-minute model revisions showing increased humidity, unexpected southeasterly flow, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,129結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and calm winds under a stable high-pressure system are driving radiative cooling overnight in Madrid, with official forecasts and numerical models converging on a minimum near 12°C. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact low, well below the 16.2°C climatological average yet consistent with observed conditions on September 11. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of significant cloud cover or advection that could limit cooling. A realistic challenge would require last-minute model revisions showing increased humidity, unexpected southeasterly flow, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,129結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Clear skies and calm winds under a stable high-pressure system are driving radiative cooling overnight in Madrid, with official forecasts and numerical models converging on a minimum near 12°C. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact low, well below the 16.2°C climatological average yet consistent with observed conditions on September 11. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of significant cloud cover or advection that could limit cooling. A realistic challenge would require last-minute model revisions showing increased humidity, unexpected southeasterly flow, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary station.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions