Current forecasts from meteorological models, including GFS outputs, show Madrid under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light variable winds, positioning the daily maximum near 33°C as the most probable outcome on September 13. These patterns promote strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover, consistent with the market's 79.5% implied probability for 33°C versus lower odds for 32°C or 34°C. Historical September averages near 27°C provide context, yet recent model runs reflect above-normal warmth from persistent anticyclonic flow. Traders appear to weigh the tight consensus across official guidance against minor uncertainties in exact peak timing or localized variations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月13日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月13日馬德裏氣溫最高？
33°C 79%
32°C 12%
34°C 11%
31°C <1%
最新
$24,480 交易量
最新
$24,480 交易量
2026-09-13
26°C或以下
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
12%
33°C
79%
34°C
11%
35°C
1%
36°C或以上
<1%
33°C 79%
32°C 12%
34°C 11%
31°C <1%
最新
$24,480 交易量
最新
$24,480 交易量
2026-09-13
26°C或以下
$239 交易量
<1%
27°C
$173 交易量
<1%
28°C
$320 交易量
<1%
29°C
$708 交易量
1%
30°C
$385 交易量
<1%
31°C
$2,844 交易量
1%
32°C
$7,408 交易量
12%
33°C
$5,868 交易量
79%
34°C
$4,007 交易量
11%
35°C
$2,114 交易量
1%
36°C或以上
$414 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models, including GFS outputs, show Madrid under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light variable winds, positioning the daily maximum near 33°C as the most probable outcome on September 13. These patterns promote strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover, consistent with the market's 79.5% implied probability for 33°C versus lower odds for 32°C or 34°C. Historical September averages near 27°C provide context, yet recent model runs reflect above-normal warmth from persistent anticyclonic flow. Traders appear to weigh the tight consensus across official guidance against minor uncertainties in exact peak timing or localized variations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$24,480結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models, including GFS outputs, show Madrid under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light variable winds, positioning the daily maximum near 33°C as the most probable outcome on September 13. These patterns promote strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover, consistent with the market's 79.5% implied probability for 33°C versus lower odds for 32°C or 34°C. Historical September averages near 27°C provide context, yet recent model runs reflect above-normal warmth from persistent anticyclonic flow. Traders appear to weigh the tight consensus across official guidance against minor uncertainties in exact peak timing or localized variations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$24,480結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETCurrent forecasts from meteorological models, including GFS outputs, show Madrid under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light variable winds, positioning the daily maximum near 33°C as the most probable outcome on September 13. These patterns promote strong daytime solar heating and limited cloud cover, consistent with the market's 79.5% implied probability for 33°C versus lower odds for 32°C or 34°C. Historical September averages near 27°C provide context, yet recent model runs reflect above-normal warmth from persistent anticyclonic flow. Traders appear to weigh the tight consensus across official guidance against minor uncertainties in exact peak timing or localized variations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions