The Hong Kong Observatory’s official maximum of 33°C on September 12, 2026, produced the near-certain market-implied odds for that outcome. Late-summer subtropical conditions, including a persistent ridge of high pressure and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C in the northern South China Sea, supported daytime highs several degrees above the 1991–2020 September normal of roughly 30.8°C. Traders weighed the agency’s verified daily extract against climatological analogs and short-range model guidance, which showed limited scope for deviation once the afternoon peak was observed. Only an improbable post-hoc data revision or station malfunction could alter the recorded value, scenarios viewed as negligible given the Observatory’s standardized measurement protocols and rapid public release of the figure.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日香港最高溫度？
9月12日香港最高溫度？
33°C 100.0%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$132,285 交易量
$132,285 交易量
2026-09-12
25°C或以下
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
否
33°C
是
34°C
否
35°C或以上
否
33°C 100.0%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$132,285 交易量
$132,285 交易量
2026-09-12
25°C或以下
$374 交易量
否
26°C
$125 交易量
否
27°C
$608 交易量
否
28°C
$5,255 交易量
否
29°C
$7,923 交易量
否
30°C
$16,311 交易量
否
31°C
$36,993 交易量
否
32°C
$26,785 交易量
否
33°C
$29,230 交易量
是
34°C
$7,215 交易量
否
35°C或以上
$1,466 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory’s official maximum of 33°C on September 12, 2026, produced the near-certain market-implied odds for that outcome. Late-summer subtropical conditions, including a persistent ridge of high pressure and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C in the northern South China Sea, supported daytime highs several degrees above the 1991–2020 September normal of roughly 30.8°C. Traders weighed the agency’s verified daily extract against climatological analogs and short-range model guidance, which showed limited scope for deviation once the afternoon peak was observed. Only an improbable post-hoc data revision or station malfunction could alter the recorded value, scenarios viewed as negligible given the Observatory’s standardized measurement protocols and rapid public release of the figure.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$132,285結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory’s official maximum of 33°C on September 12, 2026, produced the near-certain market-implied odds for that outcome. Late-summer subtropical conditions, including a persistent ridge of high pressure and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C in the northern South China Sea, supported daytime highs several degrees above the 1991–2020 September normal of roughly 30.8°C. Traders weighed the agency’s verified daily extract against climatological analogs and short-range model guidance, which showed limited scope for deviation once the afternoon peak was observed. Only an improbable post-hoc data revision or station malfunction could alter the recorded value, scenarios viewed as negligible given the Observatory’s standardized measurement protocols and rapid public release of the figure.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$132,285結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The Hong Kong Observatory’s official maximum of 33°C on September 12, 2026, produced the near-certain market-implied odds for that outcome. Late-summer subtropical conditions, including a persistent ridge of high pressure and sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C in the northern South China Sea, supported daytime highs several degrees above the 1991–2020 September normal of roughly 30.8°C. Traders weighed the agency’s verified daily extract against climatological analogs and short-range model guidance, which showed limited scope for deviation once the afternoon peak was observed. Only an improbable post-hoc data revision or station malfunction could alter the recorded value, scenarios viewed as negligible given the Observatory’s standardized measurement protocols and rapid public release of the figure.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions