Trader sentiment centers on the 58-59°F range as the leading outcome for San Francisco’s lowest temperature on September 18, driven by the persistent marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific that typically caps overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 50s during late summer. National Weather Service observations and model consensus ahead of the date aligned with historical September baselines, where coastal fog and ocean moderation suppress radiative cooling and keep readings above cooler thresholds. Significant probability mass on 51°F or below and 54-55°F ranges reflects residual uncertainty from variable wind patterns or localized urban heat effects, while higher bins remain negligible. Resolution will hinge on official station data from NOAA or NWS networks once finalized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於舊金山9月18日的最低溫度？
舊金山9月18日的最低溫度？
58-59°F 99%
華氏51度或以下 3%
52-53°F 3%
54-55°F 3%
$1,056 交易量
$1,056 交易量
2026-09-18
華氏51度或以下
否
52-53°F
否
54-55°F
否
56-57°F
否
58-59°F
是
60-61°F
否
62-63°F
否
64-65°F
否
66-67°F
否
68-69華氏度
否
華氏70度或更高
否
58-59°F 99%
華氏51度或以下 3%
52-53°F 3%
54-55°F 3%
$1,056 交易量
$1,056 交易量
2026-09-18
華氏51度或以下
$0 交易量
否
52-53°F
$25 交易量
否
54-55°F
$25 交易量
否
56-57°F
$483 交易量
否
58-59°F
$98 交易量
是
60-61°F
$390 交易量
否
62-63°F
$15 交易量
否
64-65°F
$0 交易量
否
66-67°F
$0 交易量
否
68-69華氏度
$0 交易量
否
華氏70度或更高
$20 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment centers on the 58-59°F range as the leading outcome for San Francisco’s lowest temperature on September 18, driven by the persistent marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific that typically caps overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 50s during late summer. National Weather Service observations and model consensus ahead of the date aligned with historical September baselines, where coastal fog and ocean moderation suppress radiative cooling and keep readings above cooler thresholds. Significant probability mass on 51°F or below and 54-55°F ranges reflects residual uncertainty from variable wind patterns or localized urban heat effects, while higher bins remain negligible. Resolution will hinge on official station data from NOAA or NWS networks once finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
交易量
$1,056結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment centers on the 58-59°F range as the leading outcome for San Francisco’s lowest temperature on September 18, driven by the persistent marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific that typically caps overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 50s during late summer. National Weather Service observations and model consensus ahead of the date aligned with historical September baselines, where coastal fog and ocean moderation suppress radiative cooling and keep readings above cooler thresholds. Significant probability mass on 51°F or below and 54-55°F ranges reflects residual uncertainty from variable wind patterns or localized urban heat effects, while higher bins remain negligible. Resolution will hinge on official station data from NOAA or NWS networks once finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,056結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader sentiment centers on the 58-59°F range as the leading outcome for San Francisco’s lowest temperature on September 18, driven by the persistent marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific that typically caps overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 50s during late summer. National Weather Service observations and model consensus ahead of the date aligned with historical September baselines, where coastal fog and ocean moderation suppress radiative cooling and keep readings above cooler thresholds. Significant probability mass on 51°F or below and 54-55°F ranges reflects residual uncertainty from variable wind patterns or localized urban heat effects, while higher bins remain negligible. Resolution will hinge on official station data from NOAA or NWS networks once finalized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions