The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 15°C as Wellington’s highest temperature on September 20 reflects confirmed observations from official stations, including Wellington International Airport, where the daily maximum reached exactly that level under partly cloudy skies, southerly winds around 15–20 mph, and typical spring conditions. Historical climatology for mid-September shows average highs near 14–16°C, aligning with current model consensus and real-time readings that peaked midday before cooling toward evening lows near 9°C. Late-day surges or localized microclimate variations remain the only realistic variables that could alter the final recorded value, though monitoring agency data through sunset indicate minimal risk of deviation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月20日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
9月20日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
15°C 100.0%
9°C或以下 <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$96,034 交易量
$96,034 交易量
2026-09-20
9°C或以下
否
10°C
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
是
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C或以上
否
15°C 100.0%
9°C或以下 <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$96,034 交易量
$96,034 交易量
2026-09-20
9°C或以下
$214 交易量
否
10°C
$952 交易量
否
11°C
$1,170 交易量
否
12°C
$2,902 交易量
否
13°C
$7,016 交易量
否
14°C
$25,813 交易量
否
15°C
$23,600 交易量
是
16°C
$25,461 交易量
否
17°C
$2,469 交易量
否
18°C
$5,357 交易量
否
19°C或以上
$1,081 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 15°C as Wellington’s highest temperature on September 20 reflects confirmed observations from official stations, including Wellington International Airport, where the daily maximum reached exactly that level under partly cloudy skies, southerly winds around 15–20 mph, and typical spring conditions. Historical climatology for mid-September shows average highs near 14–16°C, aligning with current model consensus and real-time readings that peaked midday before cooling toward evening lows near 9°C. Late-day surges or localized microclimate variations remain the only realistic variables that could alter the final recorded value, though monitoring agency data through sunset indicate minimal risk of deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$96,034結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 15°C as Wellington’s highest temperature on September 20 reflects confirmed observations from official stations, including Wellington International Airport, where the daily maximum reached exactly that level under partly cloudy skies, southerly winds around 15–20 mph, and typical spring conditions. Historical climatology for mid-September shows average highs near 14–16°C, aligning with current model consensus and real-time readings that peaked midday before cooling toward evening lows near 9°C. Late-day surges or localized microclimate variations remain the only realistic variables that could alter the final recorded value, though monitoring agency data through sunset indicate minimal risk of deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$96,034結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 15°C as Wellington’s highest temperature on September 20 reflects confirmed observations from official stations, including Wellington International Airport, where the daily maximum reached exactly that level under partly cloudy skies, southerly winds around 15–20 mph, and typical spring conditions. Historical climatology for mid-September shows average highs near 14–16°C, aligning with current model consensus and real-time readings that peaked midday before cooling toward evening lows near 9°C. Late-day surges or localized microclimate variations remain the only realistic variables that could alter the final recorded value, though monitoring agency data through sunset indicate minimal risk of deviation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions