Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models show the highest temperature in Warsaw on September 20 most likely falling between 20–22°C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities of 38.5% for 21°C, 29.0% for 22°C, and 23.5% for 20°C. This narrow distribution reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour outlook, driven by evolving mid-tropospheric flow patterns, variable cloud cover, and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage over central Poland. Historical September climatology places average daily maxima near 19–20°C, so current guidance sits slightly above baseline yet remains sensitive to small shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official IMGW updates for resolution signals, as even modest model revisions could quickly reprice the leading outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月20日華沙的最高溫度？
9月20日華沙的最高溫度？
21°C 39%
22°C 30%
20°C 24%
18°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
16°C或以下
<1%
17°C
4%
18°C
16%
19°C
7%
20°C
24%
21°C
39%
22°C
30%
23°C
16%
24°C
16%
25°C
3%
26°C或以上
<1%
21°C 39%
22°C 30%
20°C 24%
18°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
16°C或以下
$117 交易量
<1%
17°C
$0 交易量
4%
18°C
$0 交易量
16%
19°C
$0 交易量
7%
20°C
$0 交易量
24%
21°C
$6 交易量
39%
22°C
$158 交易量
30%
23°C
$0 交易量
16%
24°C
$0 交易量
16%
25°C
$7 交易量
3%
26°C或以上
$211 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models show the highest temperature in Warsaw on September 20 most likely falling between 20–22°C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities of 38.5% for 21°C, 29.0% for 22°C, and 23.5% for 20°C. This narrow distribution reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour outlook, driven by evolving mid-tropospheric flow patterns, variable cloud cover, and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage over central Poland. Historical September climatology places average daily maxima near 19–20°C, so current guidance sits slightly above baseline yet remains sensitive to small shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official IMGW updates for resolution signals, as even modest model revisions could quickly reprice the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$500結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models show the highest temperature in Warsaw on September 20 most likely falling between 20–22°C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities of 38.5% for 21°C, 29.0% for 22°C, and 23.5% for 20°C. This narrow distribution reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour outlook, driven by evolving mid-tropospheric flow patterns, variable cloud cover, and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage over central Poland. Historical September climatology places average daily maxima near 19–20°C, so current guidance sits slightly above baseline yet remains sensitive to small shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official IMGW updates for resolution signals, as even modest model revisions could quickly reprice the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$500結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models show the highest temperature in Warsaw on September 20 most likely falling between 20–22°C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities of 38.5% for 21°C, 29.0% for 22°C, and 23.5% for 20°C. This narrow distribution reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour outlook, driven by evolving mid-tropospheric flow patterns, variable cloud cover, and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage over central Poland. Historical September climatology places average daily maxima near 19–20°C, so current guidance sits slightly above baseline yet remains sensitive to small shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus official IMGW updates for resolution signals, as even modest model revisions could quickly reprice the leading outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions