Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions the September 18 high temperature in New York City near 80–82 °F, driving the combined 84.5 % market-implied probability for the 80–83 °F bins. A strengthening northerly flow behind a departing frontal system is expected to limit afternoon mixing and moisture, yielding mostly sunny skies and dew points in the 50s that cap heat indices near the actual air temperature. Historical climatology for mid-September shows a mean daily maximum of about 76 °F at Central Park, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading outcomes. Model spread remains modest this close to the event, though minor shifts in boundary-layer winds or cloud cover could still adjust the final reading by a degree or two before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於紐約市9月18日的最高溫度？
紐約市9月18日的最高溫度？
80-81°F 50%
82-83°F 36%
78-79°F 12%
84-85°F 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
華氏71度或以下
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
50%
82-83°F
36%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
2%
華氏90度或更高
<1%
80-81°F 50%
82-83°F 36%
78-79°F 12%
84-85°F 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
華氏71度或以下
$111 交易量
<1%
72-73°F
$133 交易量
1%
74-75°F
$100 交易量
1%
76-77°F
$189 交易量
2%
78-79°F
$288 交易量
12%
80-81°F
$604 交易量
50%
82-83°F
$283 交易量
36%
84-85°F
$169 交易量
7%
86-87°F
$331 交易量
3%
88-89°F
$50 交易量
2%
華氏90度或更高
$503 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions the September 18 high temperature in New York City near 80–82 °F, driving the combined 84.5 % market-implied probability for the 80–83 °F bins. A strengthening northerly flow behind a departing frontal system is expected to limit afternoon mixing and moisture, yielding mostly sunny skies and dew points in the 50s that cap heat indices near the actual air temperature. Historical climatology for mid-September shows a mean daily maximum of about 76 °F at Central Park, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading outcomes. Model spread remains modest this close to the event, though minor shifts in boundary-layer winds or cloud cover could still adjust the final reading by a degree or two before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
交易量
$2,760結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 3:55 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions the September 18 high temperature in New York City near 80–82 °F, driving the combined 84.5 % market-implied probability for the 80–83 °F bins. A strengthening northerly flow behind a departing frontal system is expected to limit afternoon mixing and moisture, yielding mostly sunny skies and dew points in the 50s that cap heat indices near the actual air temperature. Historical climatology for mid-September shows a mean daily maximum of about 76 °F at Central Park, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading outcomes. Model spread remains modest this close to the event, though minor shifts in boundary-layer winds or cloud cover could still adjust the final reading by a degree or two before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,760結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 3:55 AM ETRecent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions the September 18 high temperature in New York City near 80–82 °F, driving the combined 84.5 % market-implied probability for the 80–83 °F bins. A strengthening northerly flow behind a departing frontal system is expected to limit afternoon mixing and moisture, yielding mostly sunny skies and dew points in the 50s that cap heat indices near the actual air temperature. Historical climatology for mid-September shows a mean daily maximum of about 76 °F at Central Park, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading outcomes. Model spread remains modest this close to the event, though minor shifts in boundary-layer winds or cloud cover could still adjust the final reading by a degree or two before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions