Official forecasts from Environment Canada and aligned models indicate a clear night with light northerly winds favoring radiative cooling, supporting a minimum near 12°C at Toronto Pearson and similar urban sites. Current early-morning readings around 14–15°C, combined with dew points near 11°C and expected calm conditions overnight, anchor trader consensus on 12°C or 13°C outcomes near 50% implied probability each. Slight model spread on exact overnight minimum—driven by localized urban heat effects versus airport measurements—explains the tight clustering around these values and lower probability on 11°C or below. Historical September 18 lows average 13.3°C, providing context for the market's focus on minor forecast revisions through the evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月18日多倫多氣溫最低？
9月18日多倫多氣溫最低？
攝氏8度或以下 90%
12°C 51%
13°C 51%
10°C 12%
$336 交易量
$336 交易量
2026-09-18
攝氏8度或以下
90%
9°C
7%
10°C
12%
11°C
11%
12°C
51%
13°C
51%
14°C
49%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C或更高
<1%
攝氏8度或以下 90%
12°C 51%
13°C 51%
10°C 12%
$336 交易量
$336 交易量
2026-09-18
攝氏8度或以下
$0 交易量
90%
9°C
$0 交易量
7%
10°C
$11 交易量
12%
11°C
$20 交易量
11%
12°C
$0 交易量
51%
13°C
$0 交易量
51%
14°C
$16 交易量
49%
15°C
$111 交易量
<1%
16°C
$147 交易量
<1%
17°C
$15 交易量
<1%
18°C或更高
$16 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Environment Canada and aligned models indicate a clear night with light northerly winds favoring radiative cooling, supporting a minimum near 12°C at Toronto Pearson and similar urban sites. Current early-morning readings around 14–15°C, combined with dew points near 11°C and expected calm conditions overnight, anchor trader consensus on 12°C or 13°C outcomes near 50% implied probability each. Slight model spread on exact overnight minimum—driven by localized urban heat effects versus airport measurements—explains the tight clustering around these values and lower probability on 11°C or below. Historical September 18 lows average 13.3°C, providing context for the market's focus on minor forecast revisions through the evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
交易量
$336結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Environment Canada and aligned models indicate a clear night with light northerly winds favoring radiative cooling, supporting a minimum near 12°C at Toronto Pearson and similar urban sites. Current early-morning readings around 14–15°C, combined with dew points near 11°C and expected calm conditions overnight, anchor trader consensus on 12°C or 13°C outcomes near 50% implied probability each. Slight model spread on exact overnight minimum—driven by localized urban heat effects versus airport measurements—explains the tight clustering around these values and lower probability on 11°C or below. Historical September 18 lows average 13.3°C, providing context for the market's focus on minor forecast revisions through the evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$336結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ETOfficial forecasts from Environment Canada and aligned models indicate a clear night with light northerly winds favoring radiative cooling, supporting a minimum near 12°C at Toronto Pearson and similar urban sites. Current early-morning readings around 14–15°C, combined with dew points near 11°C and expected calm conditions overnight, anchor trader consensus on 12°C or 13°C outcomes near 50% implied probability each. Slight model spread on exact overnight minimum—driven by localized urban heat effects versus airport measurements—explains the tight clustering around these values and lower probability on 11°C or below. Historical September 18 lows average 13.3°C, providing context for the market's focus on minor forecast revisions through the evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions