**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a peak temperature of 34–36 °C in Guangzhou on 18 September 2026, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on 35 °C (50.5 % implied probability) followed by 36 °C (26.5 %).** Current conditions on 17 September show highs near 32–33 °C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and moderate humidity, setting up modest daytime heating for the following day. Short-range guidance (including GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs) indicates continued subsidence and limited cloud cover on the 18th, allowing surface temperatures to climb into the mid-30s without significant convective cooling or frontal passage. Historical September climatology for Guangzhou centers on daily highs of ~32 °C, but the current warm anomaly and stable high-pressure pattern favor values 2–3 °C above average. Lower probabilities assigned to 37 °C or higher reflect the narrow spread in deterministic and ensemble solutions, while sub-34 °C outcomes remain discounted absent unexpected rain or stronger onshore flow. Traders are effectively pricing the latest model consensus and the limited time remaining for major forecast shifts before the day’s maximum is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月18日廣州最高溫度？
9月18日廣州最高溫度？
35°C 51%
36°C 30%
34°C 13%
37°C 7%
最新
$17,317 交易量
最新
$17,317 交易量
2026-09-18
28°C或以下
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
13%
35°C
51%
36°C
30%
37°C
7%
38°C或以上
1%
35°C 51%
36°C 30%
34°C 13%
37°C 7%
最新
$17,317 交易量
最新
$17,317 交易量
2026-09-18
28°C或以下
$1,952 交易量
<1%
29°C
$149 交易量
<1%
30°C
$662 交易量
<1%
31°C
$276 交易量
<1%
32°C
$411 交易量
<1%
33°C
$902 交易量
2%
34°C
$1,619 交易量
13%
35°C
$3,310 交易量
51%
36°C
$4,643 交易量
30%
37°C
$1,783 交易量
7%
38°C或以上
$1,609 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a peak temperature of 34–36 °C in Guangzhou on 18 September 2026, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on 35 °C (50.5 % implied probability) followed by 36 °C (26.5 %).**
Current conditions on 17 September show highs near 32–33 °C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and moderate humidity, setting up modest daytime heating for the following day. Short-range guidance (including GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs) indicates continued subsidence and limited cloud cover on the 18th, allowing surface temperatures to climb into the mid-30s without significant convective cooling or frontal passage. Historical September climatology for Guangzhou centers on daily highs of ~32 °C, but the current warm anomaly and stable high-pressure pattern favor values 2–3 °C above average.
Lower probabilities assigned to 37 °C or higher reflect the narrow spread in deterministic and ensemble solutions, while sub-34 °C outcomes remain discounted absent unexpected rain or stronger onshore flow. Traders are effectively pricing the latest model consensus and the limited time remaining for major forecast shifts before the day’s maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$17,317結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a peak temperature of 34–36 °C in Guangzhou on 18 September 2026, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on 35 °C (50.5 % implied probability) followed by 36 °C (26.5 %).**
Current conditions on 17 September show highs near 32–33 °C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and moderate humidity, setting up modest daytime heating for the following day. Short-range guidance (including GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs) indicates continued subsidence and limited cloud cover on the 18th, allowing surface temperatures to climb into the mid-30s without significant convective cooling or frontal passage. Historical September climatology for Guangzhou centers on daily highs of ~32 °C, but the current warm anomaly and stable high-pressure pattern favor values 2–3 °C above average.
Lower probabilities assigned to 37 °C or higher reflect the narrow spread in deterministic and ensemble solutions, while sub-34 °C outcomes remain discounted absent unexpected rain or stronger onshore flow. Traders are effectively pricing the latest model consensus and the limited time remaining for major forecast shifts before the day’s maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$17,317結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a peak temperature of 34–36 °C in Guangzhou on 18 September 2026, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on 35 °C (50.5 % implied probability) followed by 36 °C (26.5 %).** Current conditions on 17 September show highs near 32–33 °C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and moderate humidity, setting up modest daytime heating for the following day. Short-range guidance (including GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs) indicates continued subsidence and limited cloud cover on the 18th, allowing surface temperatures to climb into the mid-30s without significant convective cooling or frontal passage. Historical September climatology for Guangzhou centers on daily highs of ~32 °C, but the current warm anomaly and stable high-pressure pattern favor values 2–3 °C above average. Lower probabilities assigned to 37 °C or higher reflect the narrow spread in deterministic and ensemble solutions, while sub-34 °C outcomes remain discounted absent unexpected rain or stronger onshore flow. Traders are effectively pricing the latest model consensus and the limited time remaining for major forecast shifts before the day’s maximum is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions