The closely matched market odds around 49–51.5% for the 54–57°F bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in San Francisco’s nocturnal minimum on September 19, driven by variable marine layer depth and onshore flow from the cold California Current. NOAA and National Weather Service observations show typical September radiative cooling under clear skies can produce lows near 55°F, but increased low-level moisture or light winds reduce that drop by limiting heat loss, while stronger offshore flow allows further cooling toward 52–54°F. Model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create the narrow probability distribution across adjacent bins, with historical climatology indicating daily lows in this range occur frequently yet remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover or wind speed. Updated observations from the official station will resolve the market once quality-controlled data are released.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於舊金山9月19日的最低溫度？
舊金山9月19日的最低溫度？
56-57°F 99.5%
52-53°F 1.0%
華氏51度或以下 <1%
54-55°F <1%
$1,105 交易量
$1,105 交易量
2026-09-19
華氏51度或以下
否
52-53°F
否
54-55°F
否
56-57°F
是
58-59°F
否
60-61°F
否
62-63°F
否
64-65°F
否
66-67°F
否
68-69°F
否
華氏70度或以上
否
56-57°F 99.5%
52-53°F 1.0%
華氏51度或以下 <1%
54-55°F <1%
$1,105 交易量
$1,105 交易量
2026-09-19
華氏51度或以下
$10 交易量
否
52-53°F
$15 交易量
否
54-55°F
$41 交易量
否
56-57°F
$42 交易量
是
58-59°F
$341 交易量
否
60-61°F
$574 交易量
否
62-63°F
$0 交易量
否
64-65°F
$0 交易量
否
66-67°F
$0 交易量
否
68-69°F
$41 交易量
否
華氏70度或以上
$41 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 49–51.5% for the 54–57°F bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in San Francisco’s nocturnal minimum on September 19, driven by variable marine layer depth and onshore flow from the cold California Current. NOAA and National Weather Service observations show typical September radiative cooling under clear skies can produce lows near 55°F, but increased low-level moisture or light winds reduce that drop by limiting heat loss, while stronger offshore flow allows further cooling toward 52–54°F. Model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create the narrow probability distribution across adjacent bins, with historical climatology indicating daily lows in this range occur frequently yet remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover or wind speed. Updated observations from the official station will resolve the market once quality-controlled data are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
交易量
$1,105結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 7:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 49–51.5% for the 54–57°F bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in San Francisco’s nocturnal minimum on September 19, driven by variable marine layer depth and onshore flow from the cold California Current. NOAA and National Weather Service observations show typical September radiative cooling under clear skies can produce lows near 55°F, but increased low-level moisture or light winds reduce that drop by limiting heat loss, while stronger offshore flow allows further cooling toward 52–54°F. Model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create the narrow probability distribution across adjacent bins, with historical climatology indicating daily lows in this range occur frequently yet remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover or wind speed. Updated observations from the official station will resolve the market once quality-controlled data are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,105結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 7:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The closely matched market odds around 49–51.5% for the 54–57°F bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in San Francisco’s nocturnal minimum on September 19, driven by variable marine layer depth and onshore flow from the cold California Current. NOAA and National Weather Service observations show typical September radiative cooling under clear skies can produce lows near 55°F, but increased low-level moisture or light winds reduce that drop by limiting heat loss, while stronger offshore flow allows further cooling toward 52–54°F. Model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create the narrow probability distribution across adjacent bins, with historical climatology indicating daily lows in this range occur frequently yet remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover or wind speed. Updated observations from the official station will resolve the market once quality-controlled data are released.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions