Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 21 near 30–31°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes. Stable high pressure and moderate northwest winds are expected to limit daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, keeping peaks close to late-September climatological norms of roughly 29–30°C. Official Israeli Meteorological Service guidance and station data from the Tel Aviv area show no significant deviations in recent updates, with minimal precipitation risk and dew points supporting efficient but not extreme warming. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 30°C and 31°C against typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1°C, while lower-probability outcomes reflect the low likelihood of stronger onshore flow or clearer skies altering the peak. Updated forecasts ahead of the daily maximum will be key for any late shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月21日特拉維夫的最高溫度？
9月21日特拉維夫的最高溫度？
31°C 54%
30°C 30%
32°C 9.5%
27°C或以下 3.5%
最新
$38,435 交易量
最新
$38,435 交易量
2026-09-21
27°C或以下
3%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
30%
31°C
54%
32°C
10%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C或以上
<1%
31°C 54%
30°C 30%
32°C 9.5%
27°C或以下 3.5%
最新
$38,435 交易量
最新
$38,435 交易量
2026-09-21
27°C或以下
$6,740 交易量
3%
28°C
$3,367 交易量
2%
29°C
$2,905 交易量
2%
30°C
$7,733 交易量
30%
31°C
$7,629 交易量
54%
32°C
$4,529 交易量
10%
33°C
$2,448 交易量
2%
34°C
$607 交易量
<1%
35°C
$1,248 交易量
<1%
36°C
$1,337 交易量
<1%
37°C或以上
$36 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 21 near 30–31°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes. Stable high pressure and moderate northwest winds are expected to limit daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, keeping peaks close to late-September climatological norms of roughly 29–30°C. Official Israeli Meteorological Service guidance and station data from the Tel Aviv area show no significant deviations in recent updates, with minimal precipitation risk and dew points supporting efficient but not extreme warming. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 30°C and 31°C against typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1°C, while lower-probability outcomes reflect the low likelihood of stronger onshore flow or clearer skies altering the peak. Updated forecasts ahead of the daily maximum will be key for any late shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$38,435結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 21 near 30–31°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes. Stable high pressure and moderate northwest winds are expected to limit daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, keeping peaks close to late-September climatological norms of roughly 29–30°C. Official Israeli Meteorological Service guidance and station data from the Tel Aviv area show no significant deviations in recent updates, with minimal precipitation risk and dew points supporting efficient but not extreme warming. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 30°C and 31°C against typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1°C, while lower-probability outcomes reflect the low likelihood of stronger onshore flow or clearer skies altering the peak. Updated forecasts ahead of the daily maximum will be key for any late shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$38,435結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 21 near 30–31°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes. Stable high pressure and moderate northwest winds are expected to limit daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, keeping peaks close to late-September climatological norms of roughly 29–30°C. Official Israeli Meteorological Service guidance and station data from the Tel Aviv area show no significant deviations in recent updates, with minimal precipitation risk and dew points supporting efficient but not extreme warming. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 30°C and 31°C against typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1°C, while lower-probability outcomes reflect the low likelihood of stronger onshore flow or clearer skies altering the peak. Updated forecasts ahead of the daily maximum will be key for any late shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions